This polling from Opinium is really quite remarkable because it is very rare for there to be public backing of industrial action that is going to make the daily lives of many people even harder. It suggests as well that the reliance of Johnson on his team on there being public backing for their approach is based on wrong assumptions. If there is other polling showing a similar picture then ministers have a problem.
All the possible years are coming together One of the liveliest political betting markets over the last few months has been on which year Johnson will finally cease to be Prime Minister. As can be seen things have moved sharply and there is is at the moment no real consensus about when he is going to go. He has made statements to the effect that he will not go of his own accord which means that he has to be…
The above polling table from Fivethirtyeight features the most recent generic voting intentions for the November midterm elections in the US and gives an initial indication of how the Supreme Court’s decision of Rowe v Wade is impacting on voters. Quite simply before last week’s announcement, the Republicans had been enjoying a reasonable lead. The most recent polls now have the Democrats ahead. This is early days and we need to see much more polling but the first Tuesday in…
With the Telegraph reporting that three CON MPs are in active discussion about crossing the floor to join LAB the above bet from Smarkets looks might be value. According to the paper: Labour sources told The Telegraph that the three male Conservatives, first elected in 2019, have entered formal discussions about crossing the floor to join Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Those familiar with discussions said the MPs had slim majorities in Red Wall areas in the North that have historically…
There has been a big move in the betting on who will win the 2024 White House race. The controversial Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, has now become the favourite pushing out Trump. He’s been helped by an extensive profile which has just been published by the New Yorker and this from the Daily Beast gives a summary of his approach. DeSantis’ opposition to vaccine mandates, for example, included signing legislation “telling companies that they were not free to decide…
LD voters don’t automatically make LAB their 2nd pref Inevitably after elections of all sorts there are calls for a progressive alliance to be created. The proponents want an arrangement whereby two of Lib Dem, Green or Labour parties in a specific election stand aside so that the vote of the “progressive” can be maximised. The only problem is that this assumes that LD voters would automatically make LAB their second preference. This is simply not the case as shown…
At the next general election which will happen in the next couple of years, the incumbent Tory Party will be facing two very different factions and this was seen in last week’s by-elections. First there will be straight battles with LAB to retain many of the seats won by the Tories in December 2019. Second, there will be those seats where the LDs now fancy their chances following three major gains from CON in just over a year. This includes…