MPs are back at Westminster today and no doubt a big topic of conversation will be the latest polling which shows very little difference compared with what it was before the holidays. The Tories are still in dire territory and if this was repeated at a general election then hundreds of CON MPs would lose their jobs. If the hope was that by electing Sunak they were backing an election winner then those hopes have been totally dashed. I think…
Stopping a LAB majority would be a victory So far the polls in 2023 have shown little difference from those of last year and all are still pointing to a substantial LAB victory at the next general election whenever it happens. From Sunak’s perspective, any outcome other than a LAB majority can be seen as a victory and I for one think that this is achievable. The seat calculators suggest that for LAB to have an overall majority it will…
The great Scottish comedian Hector Nicol used to tell a joke about a signalman in the Highlands who applied for a promotion and had to sit a test. This consisted of ever more outlandish scenarios about what he would do if two trains were running towards each other on the same line of track while a series of disasters befell his signalling equipment. The punchline of the joke, after his signal box had caught fire, the points had been jammed…
Given the general unpopularity of the government, the more pressing issues facing the country, and the general derision from the commentariat I’m slightly surprised by these poll findings even though I’m in favour of children studying more mathematics. What the pandemic showed was that so many people in the country, including far too many people in the country, the media and political class were so (statistically) innumerate, more maths lessons would help so many as well as the country. The…
Normally we get regular polling that shows the public view Brexit as a mistake such as the above polling from YouGov and I’ve been of the view that regret over Brexit doesn’t necessarily mean the voters want to rejoin the EU yet the below polling from People’s Polling is making me reconsider that judgment. What I find really striking about this polling is that given how much freedom of movement and immigration featured in the referendum campaign this polling showing…
As can be seen from the general election timing betting market punters are pretty much confident that there will be no contest this year. While I think that this is probably right I would not put an 89% chance on it as betting markets seem to suggest. Should there be something of a Tory recovery in the polls you can see Sunak being put under pressure to make the most of a situation and actually call an early election. As…
But at what cost to the Republicans? The saga that has gripped US politics for the past week is now over and there is an elected Speaker of the House of Representatives. It was a pretty rough ride and it is hard to see how the Republicans can benefit from this. No doubt clips of what has happened including near fisticuffs will be used by the Democrats for elections to come. This all happened because the rules state that a…
If Sunak and his party had been hoping that the new year would bring at least an indication that things were getting better then so far they have been disappointed. All the polls this year have LAB leads of 20% or more and the changes have been mostly in line with the margin of error. The best message comes from looking at the detail where the trend we saw last year remains – the Tories are suffering because a fairly…