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What has been gripping American politics throughout the whole week has still not resolved itself and that is the election of a Speaker to the House of Representatives. As we know the Republicans won thmid-term elections for the House but a significant minority of Representatives is refusing to back Kevin McCarthy for the Speaker role. Without one it is very difficult for the House to function. There have been eight formal votes and none so far has produced an outcome….

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As can be seen from the WH2024 chart Joe Biden is even more favoured by punters to be the nominee for the Democrats at the next presidential election. This is the highest he has ever been on the betting markets with punters clearly believing that his age – he’ll be 82 before the first primaries – is not a negative factor. So it looks as though the next WH race will have DeSantis slugging it out against the incumbent who…

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Sunak gets a lot of coverage in the papers this morning for his first big speech of year setting out his thoughts on the main themes that no doubt will run until the general election. One big criticism so far is that he failed to mention climate change which given the challenges facing the government was probably a mistake and will certainly get referred to again. He starts 2023 with the Tories still with a big deficit in the polls…

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One of the things about January polls is that we can make comparisons over a full calendar year as R&W are doing here with the first poll of 2023. I must say I was quite taken aback when I first read the above Tweet because I hadn’t realised quite how things have changed for the Labour leader.. The only problem for Starmer of course is that there is no immediate General Election and he might have to wait 2 years…

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The movement is in line with margin of error

We have had only had one published voting poll since the Christmas break and that had the Tories slipping even further. So far at least it doesn’t appear that Sunak government is getting any extra backing from voters for its hardline approach to the current industrial situation which mostly affects key public services. Normally you would expect to see a boost for governments taking stances like this and that might still happen. The Savanta poll above for the Indy highlights…

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