politicalbetting.com

This is grim reading for the Tories, and whilst Sunak does poll better than his party the trend is Sunak’s ratings are moving closer to the Tory Party’s ratings. If this polling doesn’t change then I expect tactical voting will make a poor general election result much worse than UNS would suggest for the Tories especially with Labour having a net favourable score. With the Tories still wedded to Brexit and the country increasingly agreeing that Brexit was a mistake/going…

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But punters continue to back Yousaf This is how the S Times is reporting its Panelbase poll of Scottish voters. Note though that it will be SNP members who finally decide: Nearly a quarter of those surveyed (23 per cent) would like Forbes to succeed Nicola Sturgeon, who announced her resignation this month, while 15 per cent favour Yousaf and 7 per cent prefer Ash Regan, the former community safety minister..Among SNP supporters Forbes leads Yousaf as the favoured successor…

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So far we have no idea what is in the proposed Brexit deal but it clearly if successful could have a huge political impact. It requires all sides to make some concessions and if Sunak has managed to achieve that in a very complex and historical political situation then he should get accolades. I’ve quite like his style simply saying absolutely nothing but working all the time to try to find areas where each side, and that includes the EU,…

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One of the problems that the former prime minister, Boris Johnson, has got it is that on current polling he could struggle to remain an MP after the next election. His Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency is being changed as a result of the new boundaries and looking at the numbers it is hard to see how he could have confidence about holding it. One of the suggestions being floated is that he might find another seat which would be…

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The Ukraine war is one year old. Here’s the scoreboard from a year of madness.  The Human Cost : over a third of a million deaths, 200000+ Russian military,  an estimated 100000 Ukrainian military and tens of thousands of civilians – many just executed. Given the uncertainties the figure quoted is on the conservative side. Over 5 million Ukrainian refugees living in host countries and a further 7 million are displaced in their own country. Nearly a million Russians –…

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Keir Starmer is seen most favourably, with 32% favourable and 39% unfavourable he achieves a Net score of -7. In comparison, the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is seen favourably by 27% of Britons while 46% disagree, giving a score of -19.  Starmer’s numbers are unchanged from January but Rishi Sunak has seen falling scores (January: 30% favourable and 39% unfavourable). A similar number of the public are favourable towards Boris Johnson as Rishi Sunak (28% vs 27%). However, with…

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The collapse of Germany at the end of World War One was so sudden, and occurred without a yard of German soil being occupied by French, American or British troops, that a narrative sprung up: the country had not been defeated in battle, but had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy of financiers, freemasons and Jews. Something similar seems to be happening with memories of the Truss-Kwarteng administration. It didn’t fail, it was stabbed in the back for…

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One of the constants in politics – more so from the Left – is how activists insist on telling voters that various events are “inevitable”. Somehow I’ve missed the inevitable triumph of communism. the inevitable collapse of capitalism and the inevitable collapse of civilisation due to warming/overpopulation/no oil ( take your pick ) .  The break up the UK has also been declared “inevitable” a meme pushed by assorted nationalists and the usual suspects on the Left and yet the…

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