The Lib Dems performance in the Labour heartlands and the spectacular victory in Newcastle make Charles Kennedy’s position as leader safe even if the Euro Elections go badly for the party. If they can take Birmingham as well, as some are predicting, then that would be the icing on the cake. They’ve needed to show that they can take Labour votes and they’ve done that in a major way. The main betting market for this is the Party Leaders at…
If it was not for the YouGov poll on SkyNews taken during the day on Thursday we would be confidently predicting a victory for Steve Norris in the London Mayoral Election – the result of which will be announced later in the day. The BBC prediction based on the local elections results thoughout England has the following vote split:- CON 38% LAB 26% LIBd 30% This is the first time that a governing party at Westminster has been forced into…
The London Mayoral race has the feel of the 1992 General Election about it. Then Kinnock was in the lead right until one final poll (top right on picture) which showed Labour and the Tories level pegging. John Major went on to win by 8%. For in the past whenever the Tories have been seen to recover sharply in an eve of election survey they have gone on to win by a mile. Apart from 1992 this happened at the…
What punters are being asked to do with the London Mayor market is bet on which polling methodology they most trust. Is it the tried and tested conventional survey conducted by telephone interviewers or is it the new kid on the block, YouGov, which does it all on the internet and is led by the former political journalist, Peter Kellner (above). The form-book is with YouGov – they got the 2001 General Election right; they got the 2002 London Borough…
How many of these will YOU be counting on Friday? This is in tonight’s Evening Standard:- Among all potential electors, Mr Livingstone is 11 points ahead of Mr Norris’s 26%. When the crucial second preference votes are taken into account, this translates into 55% to the Tory candidate’s 45%. Among those who say they are most likely to vote, the Labour lead is cut to just three points. After second preferences, Mr Livingstone is just two points ahead on 51%…
What Tony Blair has done to try to fix tomorrow Whatever your personal politics you have to admire the amazing political skills of Tony Blair. Just look at what he’s done to deal with the projected disaster that for at least two years people were predicting for him in the 2004 Euro Election. Will this pay off? We’ve not long to wait to find out and start working out the impact on the General Election, General Election date, Labour Leadership…
Have any Politicalbetting.com users any idea why the price on Steve Norris has collapsed during the day. It was upto 17.5 at one stage and then went to below 9. Meanwhile the Ken Livingstone and Simon Hughes prices have risen sharply. At 1815 Ken was up to 1.1 – or double what was available just two days ago. Hughes was at 32 and Norris at 9.8 – a drop of nearly half on the day. We were expecting the final…
A report in the Evening Standard says that Labour’s internal polling is showing that this could be very tight on Thurday because the right wing vote is much more motivated to go to the polls than the rest. The report states:- The Evening Standard has learned that Labour’s own internal polling shows that a low turnout would mean a “very tight” fight with Mr Norris. The research reveals that Right-wing voters are much more fired up to use their ballot,…