YouGov Poll – it’s 51% Livingstone to 49% Norris

YouGov Poll – it’s 51% Livingstone to 49% Norris

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    How many of these will YOU be counting on Friday?

This is in tonight’s Evening Standard:-

Among all potential electors, Mr Livingstone is 11 points ahead of Mr Norris’s 26%.

When the crucial second preference votes are taken into account, this translates into 55% to the Tory candidate’s 45%.

Among those who say they are most likely to vote, the Labour lead is cut to just three points.

After second preferences, Mr Livingstone is just two points ahead on 51% to Mr Norris’s 49%.

    We have been saying for four months that this race is far tighter than the betting odds would indicate. With a margin of just 2% between them the true betting price should be Livingstone 1.7 Norris 2.35. BACK NORRIS before the price tumbles.


This is the full data from the poll:-
Mayoralty (certain to vote – 1st preferences)

Livingstone 35%
Norris 32%
Hughes 18%
Maloney 8%
Others 8%

London Assembly (certain to vote)

Conservative 34%
Labour 26%
Lib Dem 18%
UKIP 10%
Green 7%
Other 5%

It’s the second prefernces on the Mayor push Norris to within 2%. What is even more encouraging for Norris is that his personal vote, 32%, is 2% less than his party, the Tories, in the Assembly poll. If all declared Tories vote for Norris then it’s a dead heat.

It is also worth re-stating what has been pointing out for months – that Norris did received 10.1% more votes in the actual election than the final poll suggested and that Livingstone got 12% less.

The 35% Livingstone share is precisely the same as the figure produced on deep probing in the YouGov survey before Christmas which formed the inital basis for our call.

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