Party winning most seats at UK General Election. Our CALL is to wait until after the Euro and Local Elections on June 10 and then BACK LABOUR when the prices will be better. As happened last time the Tory Euro win had no impact on the General Election. The mood might be different now but the Westminster seat distribution means that the Tories need to be 7% ahead on votes to be equal on seats and they are nowhere near…
Heavy betting on Gordon Brown this morning made him favourite to be Labour leader at the General Election. This is the first time he’d been ahead of Tony Blair. The move was short-lived for technical betting reasons and not politics Two bookmakers were offering odds on Blair going that were so out of line with the betting exchange prices that it was possible to bet against Blair in one market and bet on him in another and be sure of…
Even though the terms of the new EU constitution have still to be agreed a UK bookmaker has now opened a market on which way the country vote in the referendum that was promised by Tony Blair last month. This seems to be totally premature. We do not know what the vote will be about, what the question will be and when the referendum will take place. The odds are not very encouraging on either side – 4/9 on “No…
How will MPs react if they are on the “at risk” list? For on that Sunday, three days after the voting, the results of the 2004 Euro Elections will be announced. And the form in which these will be presented will be to itemise, party by party, what happened in every single Westmister seat. The aggregate results from each region are used to determine who gets elected. So sitting Westminster MPs will be able to look at the precise result…
The fact that political gamblers are people who back their views about political outcomes with hard cash does not make them any more “right” than the rest of the population. In fact the nature of gambling is that at least half of all the money that’s bet will be lost. At the moment we see big money going on the Conservatives for a General Election win that could be two years away with all the uncertainties not least because there…
How six became four at Populus A new dimension in UK opinion polls was introduced yesterday that could have a major impact for all political gamblers. The front page of the Times was dominated with news of the latest Populus Poll that showed the Tories 4% ahead. There was only one problem – the actual lead was 6% but in a feature on the inside pages was news that Populus had introduced a new policy – to compensate in favour…
May’s Populus poll in the Times this morning provides further evidence that Labour is in for a terrible “Super Thursday” on June 10 when the Euro, London and local election take place. The survey gives the Tories their biggest lead in a non-internet poll since the fuel protests of 2000 and suggests that Tony Blair will be 19 seats short of an overall majority in the next House of Commons. This is the party split with a seat projection from…
With just over four weeks to go before the London Mayoral election Politicalbetting.com’s longstanding call to back Norris looks even better than ever. A You Gov poll in the Evening Standard has the split at Livingstone 40 – Norris 31. But taking only those saying they are “certain to vote” the figures change to 39-34 a lead for Ken of just 5% As we’ve been saying for months – this is the best political bet there is. Get on before…