Monday Call – May 10 2004

Monday Call – May 10 2004

UK General Election – Backers move away from Labour In spite of all the latest opinion polls showing Labour either holding its ground or making progress over the Conservatives there’s been a marked changed of mood by political gamblers during the week. The spread betting market has moved substantially against Labour and now the bookmakers are easing their prices on the party winning most seats at the General Election. One has now got Labour at 1.36. In the argument over…

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“Labour 4% better off with Brown” – YouGov

“Labour 4% better off with Brown” – YouGov

The General Election, party leaders and Tony Blair political betting markets could be affected by a new YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday this morning. This suggests that Labour would do substantially better at the General Election if Tony Blair stood down to make way for Gordon Brown and puts the Prime Minister under more pressure. With Tony Blair still there the YouGov figures show a CON-LAB split of 40-36, which is an increase of one point for both…

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Ten reasons why London Mayor punters can ignore Jarvis

Ten reasons why London Mayor punters can ignore Jarvis

Steve Norris at 11 is a great value political bet – a big return for a small risk ONE. The only electors whose views matter are those one in three Londoners that bother to vote at local elections. In a low turnout election the real campaign is not what’s reported in the media but the efficiency in which the party machines identify and then get their own supporters out on the day. TWO. The mathematics of a low-turnout mean that…

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Exactly a year from today….will YOU be counting YOUR General Election winnings?

Exactly a year from today….will YOU be counting YOUR General Election winnings?

If Tony Blair/Gordon Brown hold the General Election on the widely predicted date on 05/05/05/ then exactly a year today political gamblers will be counting their losses and adding up their winnings. What do I expect to see? I’m confident that the bets on Labour winning most seats will bear fruit because the Tories would have to be at least 7% ahead to equal Labour. There might be better value by backing the Tories to win second most seats which…

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Would the Lib Dems prop up the seat winner or the vote winner?

Would the Lib Dems prop up the seat winner or the vote winner?

With both this week’s opinion poll and moves on the spread betting markets in the past 24 hours pointing to the General Election producing a big Tory lead on votes but a big Labour lead on seats attention will surely focus on what the Liberal Democrats would do in such an outcome? The Lib Dems can’t duck this one because the mathematics of the next General Election mean that if there is a hung Parliament then the Tories are bound…

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Predicting low turn-out elections

Predicting low turn-out elections

With almost all the parties having launched their local and Euro campaigns for “Super Thursday” on June 10 the nightmare for political gamblers and others who like to predict these things is how do you deal with very low-turnouts? For low-turnouts can completely distort a result making prediction very challenging and can cause politicians and commentators to draw totally wrong conclusions about the way the public feels. Before the 1999 Euro Elections all the polls had support for Labour at…

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Labour recovering slightly – but bad news for all

Labour recovering slightly – but bad news for all

This morning’s poll in the Telegraph by YouGov brings bad news for all three parties at the start of the Euro Elecion campaign. YouGov has picked up the trend recorded in the latest polls by MORI and ICM to show a marginal improvement in Labour’s position even though Tony Blair has been having a torrid time. The change in the gap between Labour and Conservative has, like MORI, improved by one percentage point in Labour’s favour. YouGov is showing Michael…

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Monday Call – May 3 2004

Monday Call – May 3 2004

NEW – The Politicalbetting.com Market Prices Search Engine Politicalbetting.com now has its own dedicated pages comparing all the latest political betting odds, including betting exchanges, supplied by the Besbetting.com odds search engine. This scans through the main bookmakers offering bets on political markets; identifies market movements and discovers the best prices. Our new agreement with Bestbetting will help us to provide an even better service to our growing user base. UK General Election Tony Blair is in for a terrible…

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