I’m confident that the bets on Labour winning most seats will bear fruit because the Tories would have to be at least 7% ahead to equal Labour. There might be better value by backing the Tories to win second most seats which is effectively the same bet. Hopefully, waiting to bet on Labour until after the June 10 local and Euro elections will have given me a better price.
If there’s a market I would back the Tories to win most votes overall but only just.
I expect that my decision not to enter the spread betting seat market will be vindicated – the spread prices offer no value at the moment although that could change. At previous elections I’ve won on BUY spreads on the Lib Dems but I’ve now do not bet on the party lest my personal support skews my judgement. Wishful thinking can be very costly!
If as before there’s a market on the percentage turnout then I’ll bet that it will be higher than the 59.4% of 2001. The media will talk this down and the price will be good. My view is that it was so low last time because the result was a foregone conclusion and the Tories didn’t look credible. Next year things will be different.
The higher turn-out will lead to Labour winning overall, but only just, and if there’s a market I will bet against a hung Parliament provided I can get a good price and the general opinion polling situation stays as it is.
I would like to see a market on the Tories winning in England.To do this they would need just 245 seats – which is an achievable target and something that Michael Howard will be able to take out of the election.The “English” card could have powerful voter appeal.
Clearly I’m very confident about my bet Michael Howard being leader of the Conservative Party at the start of voting. This was placed about an hour before voting closed in the IDS confidence vote last November. You can still get 1.08 on this and the only risk, surely, is Howard’s health. Politically he’s totally safe – the Tories could not possibly have a third leadership election in four years.
I’ve avoided the Tony Blair being Labour leader market because I’ve felt that there’s better value on the betting exchange “Still Party Leaders” market by putting money on Blair or Kennedy or both not being there. I’m totally confident that my bets against IDS in this market will pay up – though amazingly, I notice, somebody is still putting money on him on Betfair – it can only be his Mum!
In the past there’s been a market on the most accurate pollster. Last time ICM and YouGov were closest but now they are giving totally different pictures. The more I see of YouGov the more my reservations about internet polling are eased and that’s where I would put my money.
If Tony Blair/Gordon Brown hold the General Election on the widely predicted date on 05/05/05/ then exactly a year today political gamblers will be counting their losses and adding up their winnings. What do I expect to see?
Clearly a lot can happen in a year and all these views could change.