Monday Call – May 17 2004

Monday Call – May 17 2004


Party winning most seats at UK General Election. Our CALL is to wait until after the Euro and Local Elections on June 10 and then BACK LABOUR when the prices will be better. As happened last time the Tory Euro win had no impact on the General Election. The mood might be different now but the Westminster seat distribution means that the Tories need to be 7% ahead on votes to be equal on seats and they are nowhere near that in the polls. To win a Commons majority Michael Howard needs a 10% lead on votes. Tony Blair/Gordon Brown can do it even if Labour is 2% behind.

Spread Betting on Commons seats. The pressure on Labour has seen the spreads drop even further during the week to well below the 324 seats that the party needs to secure an overall Commons Majority. Currently LAB 318-228; CON 250-260; LIB 53-58. With this form of betting if you think that Labour will get more than 328 then you BUY and will win your stake multiplied by the number of seats that they get above 328. If Labour gets less than 328 then you lose on the same basis. We think that the latest movements are an over-reaction but we see no value in any of these spreads. DON’T BET.

Labour Leader at General Election. Gordon Brown was almost at the same level as Tony Blair yesterday but we are not convinced that Tony Blair will be going so DON’T BET in the Betfair and William Hill market. If you think that Blair will not be there William Hill’s price is much better.

Mayor of London – person or party. The news that the Green Party is refusing to endorse Ken as their second preference choice because he is Labour candidate could be decisive. Last time Ken received more than 160,000 first and second preference votes from Green supporters. Our long-standing call that this is a close race remains. We think that Ken Livingstone and Steve Norris have an equal chance of winning. The current price on Norris is at least TWENTY-FIVE TIMES that of Livingstone. Even if you are not convinced it is worth a punt at 6 or 7 to one. With every national and local poll showing the Tories increasing this gets tougher for Ken by the day. BET before the next poll comes out.

US Presidential Election. The UK price on Kerry has held up even though Bush has had a pretty awful week. We aim to be making a major call on this election this week.

Kerry’s Running-Mate. The Irish-based but US-focussed Tradesports betting exchange is running a market on John Kerry’s choice as Vice-Presidential running mate. It lists fifteen possibilities with the current favourite being John Edwards who put up such a good show in the primaries. Our call at the price of about 5 is the “none of the above” option.

Will the result be challenged? Looking back to the Bush-Gore race of 2000 Tradesports has a market on the “2004 Presidential Election is Certified on or before Dec 13 2004”. Surely there will be no repeat of the Florida mess-ups last time – or will there? If it’s a close result, as seems likely, the precedent has been set for making challenges in the courts. At a price of about 8 it might be worth a small punt.

UK Euro Constitution Referendum. Even though the terms of the new EU constitution have still to be agreed one bookmaker has now opened a market on which way the country vote in the referendum that was promised by Tony Blair last month. This seems to be totally premature. We do not know what the vote will be about, what the question will be and when the referendum will take place. The odds are not very encouraging on either side. DON’T BET.

NOTE: When we make a call we are stating that we believe that the chances of something happening are better than the odds that are available. All prices quoted are as at time of posting. We endeavour to ensure that material is accurate when posted. However can accept no respnsiblity for the information on the site or opinions expressed. Users make bets entirely at their own risk.

Comments are closed.