YouGov versus ICM — Will June 10 provide the answer?

YouGov versus ICM — Will June 10 provide the answer?

The May ICM poll showing Labour 4% ahead has further reinforced the gap with YouGov which, like Populus, has the Tories 4% ahead.Which pollster should gamblers believe? This week’s YouGov poll showing that UKIP is heading to beat the Lib Dems for third place in next month’s Euro Election – an outcome that would surely mean the end for Charles Kennedy – should enable us to test the pollster.For if on June 10 YouGov can get both the low turnout…

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Could reverse tactical voting open the door for Michael Howard?.

Could reverse tactical voting open the door for Michael Howard?.

Need the Tories be so gloomy about the Westmister seat distribution? A number of Tory supporters are seeking to raise their General Election hopes by suggesting that the Westminster seat distribution that seems so skewed to Labour might not be as bad for them as it appear. There’s been a particular focus that this factor could be partially off-set by the anti-Tory tactical voting of 1997 and 2001 “unwinding”. Could this happen and what would be the effect? A major…

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Monday Call – May 24 2004

Monday Call – May 24 2004

Our big call on Steve Norris is three-quarters of the way there Mayor of London – person or party. It’s dead easy to call a 1/8 favourite – it’s much harder to call at odds of 11 or more which is what we’ve been doing for months. We said back Norris when he was 21% behind in the polls and prices were in double digits. Now YouGov’s latest London poll shows that Livingstone’s lead has collapsed to a mere 5%…

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Where will Charles Kennedy stand after the Euro Election?

Where will Charles Kennedy stand after the Euro Election?

With all the attention on Tony Blair there has been very little recently on Charles Kennedy’s position as leader of the Lib Dems. The party has been totally focussed on the June 10 European and elections and the general view is that they are going to do well. But are they? The locals should be good but will the Euro vote prove to be the disappointment that it was five years ago? A problem is that the Lib Dems always…

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Avoid being tempted by Michael Howard

Avoid being tempted by Michael Howard

At the end of a difficult period for Tony Blair it’s tempting to bet on the Tories to win most seats at the General Election. The prices look good value and Labour is expected to take a real drubbing in the “Super Thursday” local, London and Euro Elections on June 10. The mood is being reinforced by the way Michael Howard has been able to pursue the Government on Iraq. As Robin Cook writes in the Independent today “Howard may…

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Will YouGov repeat its Scotish success in London?

Will YouGov repeat its Scotish success in London?

The conventional opinion polls got the London Mayoral Election so badly wrong in 2000 over-estimating Livingstone’s support that it’s no wonder that they’ve mostly avoided this June’s battle. There were six main polls in 2000 which showed leads over Steve Norris ranging from 34%-57% when on the day the margin was just 11.9%. The smallest error was a staggering 22%. Apart from one ICM survey reported in February the polling this time has been left to the internet pollster, YouGov….

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Avoiding my biggest politcal betting disaster

Avoiding my biggest politcal betting disaster

A new tool to help predict the next House of Commons My biggest ever political gambling loss was on the 2001 General Election because I had not thought through the issue of relating votes to seats – the critical factor in UK General Elections. I bought the Conservatives in the spread betting Commons seat markets because I believed that the opinion polls were wildly overstating the Labour lead and that the election would be much closer than was being predicted….

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Why we think John Kerry will win

Why we think John Kerry will win

Unlike almost all the other political betting markets that we comment on we have refrained from making a call on the eventual result of the 2004 US Presidential Election because we have not had a clear view. But now we have come to the conclusion that Senator John Kerry can and will win in November. What has persuaded us is the view that Kerry will not win the election; Bush will lose it. The lacklustre performance of Kerry to date…

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