Those political gamblers who have been backing Tony Blair to stay as Labour leader and Prime Minister have been given a boost by Boris Johnson’s report of the conversation he had in the Mall on his bike with fellow cyclist, Jonathan Powell – Tony Blair’s Chief of Staff. Asked by Johnson – the Spectator Editor and Tory MP – about relations between No 10 and the Treasury, Mr Powell is reported to have said: “It’s a Shakespearean tragedy. Gordon Brown…
But will they lose Leicester South and if so – who to? After a few uncomfortable weeks when the spread betting gamblers on the Commons seat market had put Labour at below the level where they would have a Commons majority the latest spreads have the party comfortably above the 324 seat target – which gives them an absolute majority. Labour 325-335 Conservative 245-255 LIBd 52-57 This is in response to the pre-Euro Election opinion polls showing increased support for…
Hughes moves up further in the polls On the face of it the decision of the RMT union to hold an Underground strike on June 10 – the day of the London Mayoral Election – would seem to be manner from heaven for the Norris and Hughes campaigns. Any reminder of Ken Livingstone’s left-wing links would seem to reinforce the determination of non-Labour voters to turn-out and that must be bad news for Ken. The whole Livingstone campaign has been…
An ideal opportunity for betting exchange novices. The new market Betfair, has just opened on the date of the next UK General Election offers good profit opportunities and provides a vehicle for people not used to this form of gambling to learn about betting exchanges where notions like “the election date” can be traded like a stock or share. The “runners” are three month segments running from now until 2006 when Tony Blair has, by law, to go to the…
Commons call for an investigation into the pollsters – now a big test The group of leading Labour MPs that has put down a Commons motion calling for an investigation into opinion polling firms over fears that ‘questionable methodology’ is “skewing the political process and tarnishing the industry’s reputation” will be able to get some empirical information next week on the effectiveness of the internet-based pollster, YouGov. For they will be able to compare YouGov’s predictions on the Elections with…
Soaring UKIP poll ratings affect several markets UK political betting has been dominated by the UK Independence Party following a YouGov poll showing that that it could beat the Lib Dems for third place in the Euro Elections. In other surveys UKIP has taken 4-5% out of the Tory share of the vote in the main General Election polls as well one on the race for the London Mayor. This affects the General Election, Party Leaders and the London Mayoral…
. The Chief Executive and campaign guru of the Lib Dems, Lord Chris Rennard, has done a brilliant job attacking the postal voting experiment and not just over printing problems, the prospect of sealed letter boxes because of industrial action and fraud. He has rightly pointed out the constitutional implications of the Government ignoring the Electoral Commission’s ruling on the scale of the experiment. But will Lord Rennard’s first action after the Euro Election not be on the postal voting…
. But the Tories are 6% ahead for the London Assembly . The latest poll putting Ken Livingstone 14% ahead might seem fatal to our London call that the election is very close but we have had nothing this time about turnout or 2nd preferences. We have not had, either, the deep probing about the affect of Ken being Labour candidate discussed here yesterday. Ken Livingstone might have been able to obliterate all reference to the fact that he is…