Betting on the by-elections & other markets

Betting on the by-elections & other markets

More bookmakers open by-election markets Even though the main online political bookmaker, William Hill, closed their by-election markets, as they said they would, on Friday evening another bookmaker and a betting exchange have now decided to get involved. Click through on this link and choose either PaddyPower or Betfair. The PaddyPower prices are nothing like as attractive for most options as William Hill was last week. Its latest prices are:- Leicester South: Lib Dem 4-6: LAB 15-8: CON 5-1: Birmingham…

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Dealing with the polls’ Labour bias

Dealing with the polls’ Labour bias

Creating a tool for General Election betting One of the great challenges with General Election betting is the opinion poll bias to Labour. At the last three General Elections this has been an average 6.5%. At the Euro Election in June even the internet pollster, YouGov overstated Labour and understated the Tories. To help with this we are proposing what we are calling the Politicalbetting Polls Variance Calculation which weights and averages poll results according to their proven record in…

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Does this man really want to win Leicester South?

Does this man really want to win Leicester South?

What would a by-election victory do for his career? Last month Chris Heaton-Harris (above) – Conservative candidate in Leicester South – was re-elected as an MEP for a further five years. What we find odd is that he’s said he will give up being an MEP if he wins. For if victory does come next Thursday then the chances of the Tories retaining the seat in the General Election are very slim. It would take a gigantic swing on the…

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Boost for Kerry in White House Polls

Boost for Kerry in White House Polls

A big boost for the Kerry-Edward ticket in the White House race by the latest crop of polls. These are the first surveys since the Vice-Presidential choice was announced and John Kerry must be delighted at the way Americans are responding. In the NBC News poll Kerry-Edwards are beating Bush-Cheney by 49-41. Other polls have smaller margins but there is a clear gap between the two tickets. UK betting prices on Kerry have tightened during the week although you can…

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Bring Back the Great British By-Election?

Bring Back the Great British By-Election?

Where’s the 2004 version of the late Vincent Hanna? We very much agree with the lament by the Guardian political writer, Michael White, this week. Byelections are not the thriving political industry they used to be. No more rowdy public meetings, no daily press conferences where the candidates were made to squirm by the BBC’s legendary Vincent Hannah. There are not many byelections anyway. MPs no longer routinely die in harness. How things are different ahead of next week’s Birmingham…

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Market Movers in the US and UK

Market Movers in the US and UK

It’s an indication of how far John Kerry has come that betting prices on the Democrats taking the White House have more than halved, and those on the Republicans have more than doubled, since the start of the year when the long process of selecting a nominee began. Following yesterday’s announcement about John Edwards being the running mate there’s been a further hardening of the John Kerry odds which are very close to evens on both sides of the Atlantic….

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Kerry price hardens after V-P announcement

Kerry price hardens after V-P announcement

John Edwards on the ticket pushes Kerry price towards evens Today’s news that the North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, will be John Kerry’s running mate for the Presidential election on November 2nd has led to big money going on the Deomcrats with consquential price changes. The move is not a surprise and the Edwards price had been the favourite for months after his excellent performance in the primaries. One or two UK bookmakers still have Kerry at 11/10 but all…

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Do you wear one of these?

Do you wear one of these?

Updated 5.30pm Do you know when the Tories last won a seat from another party in a by-election? It’s a reflection of the Tory’s appalling performance at parliamentary by-elections over the decades that the only people who might know the answer to this are the “political anoraks”. Sadly we are part of that group! You have to go back to June 3 1982, in the raified political atmosphere of the Falklands War, for the Merton, Mitcham and Morden by-election which…

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