When are voters going to stop punishing Labour for the war?

When are voters going to stop punishing Labour for the war?

What happens if they never come back? All the General Election betting markets have been reacting to the by-elections and the Butler report on the assumption that voters will automatically return to Labour. The spread-betting market, extraordinarily, thinks that all this means that Labour is going to get more Commons seats. But what happens if those who stopped supporting the party because of the war just never come back? The conventional theory is that they’ll return to stop the Tories….

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Smart punters should stick with Tony

Smart punters should stick with Tony

UPDATE NOON Ignore the post by-elections odds changes on Blair and Labour After Labour losing its parliamentary seat in Leicester South to the Liberal Democrats but holding Birmingham Hodge Hill with a majority in hundreds rather than thousands smart punters should stick with Tony Blair even though the response of the markets has been against him and Labour. The William Hill price on Blair going before the General Election is down to 5/4 and Labour’s odds have lengthened. We disagree…

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Labour now favourite in Hodge Hill

Labour now favourite in Hodge Hill

1pm UPDATE Six hours after the polls opened in the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester South by-elections the markets are moving a bit away from the Liberal Democrats. There is still very little money going on – just over £10,000 in total at both elections on Betfair – that it seems that supporters of none of the parties have much confidence. Of that total just £904 has been matched in Labour in Leicester and £696 in Birmingham. With so many…

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Lib Dems odds-on favourites in both seats

Lib Dems odds-on favourites in both seats

UPDATE NOON Will it be a day of despair for Labour? The Lib Dems go into polling day at the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester South by-election as firm odds-on favourites. At time of posting it was 30/100 in Leicester and 4/5 in Birmingham – the latter price holding in spite of continued tricky coverage for the party over their candidate’s day job in the mobile phone masts industry. At noon the Lib Dem prices in both seats had eased…

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If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If electors in tomorrow’s two by-election vote in accordance with the latest national opinion polls then Labour will have huge victories in both Birmingham and Leicestereven though the party’s share nationally has dropped by ten per cent since the last General Election. According to the latest General Election projection produced for each Westminster seat by the City mathematician, Martin Baxter, these would be the results:- Birmingham Hodge Hill LAB 50.8%: CON 19.3%: LIB 11.1%: OTH 18.6% Leicester South LAB 43.4%:…

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Why does nobody want to bet on Labour?

Why does nobody want to bet on Labour?

Could the Lib Dems win both Westminster seats? An almost total absence of Labour backers led to last night’s price moves on the by-election betting markets which leave the Lib Dems as heavy odds-on favourites in Leicester and at times touching evens in Birmingham. William Hill closed their market at the stated time with the Lib Dems on 4/11. If the betting markets are correct then there’s a chance that the party could be heading for two number one positions…

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Have the by-election prices gone too low?

Have the by-election prices gone too low?

Leicester LDs tighten even further – now 4/11 With all bets you have to ask yourself – what is the risk and what is the return? If the potential winnings are greater than the risk then you have a good value bet. If not then don’t bet. We’ve been calling the Lib Dems in Leicester South for weeks and we stick with that – but we do not believe that the current 4/11 , which it has moved to this…

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Monday Call – July 12 2004

Monday Call – July 12 2004

Updated 1-50pm Will the Kerry-Edwards price tighten even further? At the end of the month thousands of Democrat delegates will head for their party’s Convention in Boston to endorse formally the Kerry-Edwards ticket and start the campaign. The choice of John Edwards for the V-P place has gone down well in the polls and they are scenting victory. Yet at the turn of the year, as the following shows, nobody gave the party a chance of ousting Bush from the…

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