John Edwards on the ticket pushes Kerry price towards evens
Today’s news that the North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, will be John Kerry’s running mate for the Presidential election on November 2nd has led to big money going on the Deomcrats with consquential price changes. The move is not a surprise and the Edwards price had been the favourite for months after his excellent performance in the primaries.
One or two UK bookmakers still have Kerry at 11/10 but all the rest are evens or below. The betting exchanges are below the best bookmakers. We think that 11/10 on Kerry is a good value bet.
In the US the Iowa Electronic Exchange – where “who wins in November” is traded as if it was a stock Kerry has moved up a full point but the Bush/Kerry split is 52:48. The US-focused Tradesports betting exchange is slightly better for Bush though the price has moved downwards.
A key factor in having one of the leading primary contenders on the ticket is that if there are “skeletons in the cupboard” these would have been flushed out already. Edwards also gives Kerry a crucial Southern dimension.
The key thing in the coming days will be how the Democratic ticket is viewed by the pollsters. The US Pollingreport site has this round-up of polls on John Edwards which should be encouraging to Kerry backers.