Well done Gavin Williamson

Well done Gavin Williamson

The headline I thought I’d never write One of the big political stories of the week has been the series of YouTube interviews commissioned by the campaign group Led led Donkeys into the reaction of a senior Conservatives to a suggestion that they might like to work for a Korean Consulting firm as part of its European advisory board The aim of the interviews has been to establish what sort of price they will be seeking to have a role…

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Sunak’s small boats policy doesn’t look like an election winner

Sunak’s small boats policy doesn’t look like an election winner

It has been widely reported that the prime minister sees solving the small boats issue as being an essential plank in his efforts to hold onto power at the next general election. But is it really the policy area that is most likely to attract support from those voters the poll suggest the Tories have lost since the last election. What I find remarkable about the YouGov polling above of is how views of the small boats policy and the…

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From a 70% chance to a 7% one – betting on BoJo as GE CON leader

From a 70% chance to a 7% one – betting on BoJo as GE CON leader

How punters have viewed his chances From the perspective of those who bet on politics. this makes an interesting betting chart showing how the former PM and GE2019 winner declined in the Conservative leader at the general election betting. What I find remarkable now is how strongly his chances were perceived during 2021 when of course he was prime minister. The surprising thing at the moment is that he should still be rated by punters as a 7% chance. He…

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Can Sunak carry over his rating recovery into a new week?

Can Sunak carry over his rating recovery into a new week?

However you look at it Sunak has had a very good couple of weeks which includes of course getting his Northern Ireland deal through and agreed with all the parties in Dublin Belfast and of course Brussels. In general, he is attracting more positive coverage in the media and a great deal of attention. He also has the very strong attribute of being nothing like Boris Johnson reinforced by the former prime minister’s sulk over the Northern Ireland vote last…

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Did Rishi Sunak just save the Union?

Did Rishi Sunak just save the Union?

I thought it would be interesting to see what the independence polling shows on the day before Nicola Sturgeon’s successor is announced. The Gender Recognition Reform Bill farrago but could have ended up giving Sturgeon a fishy legacy. Sunak’s intervention, which was dubbed by some an imperial veto, appears to have moved the voting intentions when it comes to Scottish independence in favour of the Union. The irony is that this could end up benefiting Sir Keir Starmer and Labour…

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If I could turn back time

If I could turn back time

They always say that daylight savings is such a great idea, I give it seven months. I find this pan-European polling interesting given the various degrees of enthusiasm for daylight saving time. My bold prediction is that daylight saving time will be abolished in the next fifty years. TSE PS – I love Sweden, but my word, what kind of monster prefers the cold of winter over the warmth of summer?

Biden now clear betting favourite to win WH2024

Biden now clear betting favourite to win WH2024

And it looks like Trump could be his opponent If those who gamble on American politics have got this right then next year’s White House Race will be between the two nominees from 2020 and two very old men. Trump will be 78 on election day and Biden will be 82. As a 76 year-old myself I believe that this is far too old for anyone to be seeking the most powerful political position in the world. But there is…

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