Will Michael Howard only get four more seats? The Martin Baxter prediction based on applying his latest poll of polls to what happened in 2001 on a uniform national swing makes grim weekend reading for the Tories. It shows these vote shares LAB 37: C0N 31.3: LD 21.6 Converting this into seats Martin’s formula produces LAB 390 CON 169 LD 57. So even though Labour would be 5% down on their 2001 vote share they lose just 13 seats on…
Will defiance of the Electoral Commission get through the House of Lords? The main story in the Times this morning says that the Government “defied its own independent advisers yesterday by declaring that all-postal ballots could go ahead despite fears of widespread fraud and intimidation.” The Electoral Commission had recommended that all-postal ballots be abandoned after it had studied the experiment on June 10 when such ballots took place over large parts on England for the local and Euro election….
Is Mori right that this is the number one issue? After our article on the Mori poll yesterday Kit made the following observation:- “Received opinion here (including mine) is that Iraq or the War on Terror isn’t going to play heavily outside small sections of society. But according to this poll defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism is given as the most important issue by a reasonably whopping 32% of respondents. Looking back a year MORI have it at the top of the…
The November Mori poll has just been published and shows big changes on the vote shares of October. They are:- CON 31 (+2), LAB 35 (-4), LDEM 23 (+1). The October figures came after a very bad month for Michael Howard and other pollsters had picked up a move to Labour. Before jumping to too many conclusions it should be noted that the survey took place between the 4th November and 8th November – more than a month ago –…
It’s a week since George Galloway announced that he would be standing in Bethnal Green and Bow at the General Election yet his party RESPECT still hasn’t appeared on any of the party lists produced by the spread betting firms. There’s a lot of interest in his canditure, as we’ve seen on the site, yet so far this has not been registered by the bookies. At least you would expect one of the spread firms to put RESPECT on their…
Labour move up a bit Following the Populus Poll in the Times yesterday we need to change our General Election prediction which seeks to deal with the over-statement of Labour support that has been a characteristic of the polls for nearly half a century – a factor that is being featured in a BBC radio series with Peter Snow. The extraordinary impact of the weighting changes at Populus serve to illustrate what a dangerous area polling has now become. Our…
William Hill have cut their odds about David Blunkett standing down as Home Secretary on or before January 1, 2005 from 7/2 to 5/2, but make him 2/7 still to be in office on that date. ‘All the money we have taken so far – including the largest bet struck of �200 – has been for Blunkett to go’ said a Hill’s spokesman. Given the publicity there has been and he is still there we wonder whether the lower price…
READ CAREFULLY Tories up a notch The big move to Labour seen in the recent ICM, NOP and CA polls has not been confirmed by the December Populus Poll in the Times. In fact there has been a small Tory recovery. The headline figures of LAB 37: CON 33: LD 20 mask a change in weightings which helpfully the pollster sets out. On the new weightings last month would have been LAB 37: CON 31: LD 21 as opposed to…