What would be a shock result on 05/05/05? In 1997 so many people had been affected by John Major’s shock victory five year’s earlier that few quite believed what the opinion polls were telling them. Received opinion had it that – yes – New Labour was going to win but very few were prepared to forecast or even bet on a landslide majority of the size that happened. The experience of the amazing shock of April 10 1992 when none…
Is Tony Blair right to back his Home Secretary? So far there have not been any polls since the media frenzy erupted last weekend on the Blunkett paternity affair. We might get a better idea on Tuesday when the December Populus poll in the Times should be out and hopefully there will be some Blunkett-specific questions. The story has already kept the focus away from what should have been the two star attractions of the Government’s pre-election policy portfolio –…
Due to overseas work commitments this week my access to the internet will restricted so there will only be a limited number of site updates. The big polling development of the week should be the December Populus Survey in the Times on Tuesday. Last month’s 34% Labour share was the lowest of any organisation and figures in our formula for making projections for the General Election. If that rises in line with the the latest NOP, ICM and CR polls…
NOTE: LIMITED SITE UPDATES FOR THE NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF OVERSEAS WORK COMMITMENTS Establishing whether those in polling surveys actually vote One of the obvious ways that the polls are flawed is that currently about 70% of those interviewed say that they voted last time but we know that less than 60% actually did so. Thus one in ten are either telling lies, wishful thinking or have poor memories. Whatever it must distort the polling outcome. Would it be possible,…
Will his campaign help keep Iraq in the news? The ex-Labour and now Respect MP, George Galloway is to stand in the East End of London at the next General Election. He made his announcement after winning his High Court libel action against the Daily Telegraph newspaper. He has chosen the constituency of Bethnal Green and Bow, currently held for Labour by Oona King. Respect won a council seat in nearby Tower Hamlets in July. Mr Galloway is currently the…
AMENDED 4.30 pm Thursday. Fifty years of over-estimating Labour The heart of our election prediction formula that has caused so much debate is the undisputed fact that all the pollsters seem to have a flaw when it comes to assessing Labour. This is not new and has been going on for decades. In only two of the General Elections over the past fifty years have the pollsters not over-stated Labour – February 1974 and the Tory landslide of 1983. Since…
Due to technical problems, the Election Prediction thread has been temporarily lost. We hope to recover it later this afternoon. (Sorry for spoiling your discussions.) Robert
William Hill are offering odds 7/2 against David Blunkett ceasing to be Home Secretary by January 1 2005. As yet the market is not available online. The price seems tempting.