The November Mori poll has just been published and shows big changes on the vote shares of October. They are:- CON 31 (+2), LAB 35 (-4), LDEM 23 (+1). The October figures came after a very bad month for Michael Howard and other pollsters had picked up a move to Labour.
Before jumping to too many conclusions it should be noted that the survey took place between the 4th November and 8th November – more than a month ago – a delay caused, perhaps, by the fact, apparently, that they do not have a media client. It really shows a commitment on the part of Mori that in these circustances they continue to carry out their unbroken run of surveys.
Mori have a very rigid view of those they survey who get included in their headline number – only those people saying that their certainty to vote is 10/10 are included. This is thought to show higher Tory figures. Mori also do not weight by past vote.
The overall impact of the past month’s polls is that the number are all over the place – some showing big Labour advances and some showing other moves.
Because the Mori poll is more than a month old we are not putting its figures into the Politicalbetting General Election Calculation.
For spread-betters the coming election is as confusing as ever. There are no price changes.