Baxter prediction – Labour majority 134

Baxter prediction – Labour majority 134


    Will Michael Howard only get four more seats?

    The Martin Baxter prediction based on applying his latest poll of polls to what happened in 2001 on a uniform national swing makes grim weekend reading for the Tories. It shows these vote shares LAB 37: C0N 31.3: LD 21.6

    Converting this into seats Martin’s formula produces LAB 390 CON 169 LD 57.

    So even though Labour would be 5% down on their 2001 vote share they lose just 13 seats on the notional old House of Commons with the Scottish changes factored in.

    The current Labour spreads of 345-353 seats offer great value bets for those who believe –

  • the pollsters’ are not overstating Labour – this was an average of 6.6% last time
  • there will be no seat changes outside the national swing
  • the notion of tactical vote unwind does not exist
  • In 2001 the pollsters were largely spared embrrassment by the size of the Labour lead, tactical voting and higher than average swings by incumbent MPs.
    Can we be certain that in a changed political climate that it will work in the same way? If it doesn’t then seat changes could be disproportionate.

Mike Smithson

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