Will Michael Howard only get four more seats?
Converting this into seats Martin’s formula produces LAB 390 CON 169 LD 57.
So even though Labour would be 5% down on their 2001 vote share they lose just 13 seats on the notional old House of Commons with the Scottish changes factored in.
The current Labour spreads of 345-353 seats offer great value bets for those who believe –
In 2001 the pollsters were largely spared embrrassment by the size of the Labour lead, tactical voting and higher than average swings by incumbent MPs.
Can we be certain that in a changed political climate that it will work in the same way? If it doesn’t then seat changes could be disproportionate.