Is the Brown/Blair split costing votes? Labour has slipped 2% in the first poll of 2005 which also shows that more people want Gordon Brown to be Prime Minister than Tony Blair. This brings ICM back into the line with the other pollsters who have all shown Labour slipping back a little since November. By way of comparison the average Labour share with ICM in 2000, the year before the last General Election, was 48%. Tomorrow’s poll shows that the…
The polls look as though they will stay gloomy for the Tories Just eleven days before Christmas we said that those wanting to back Labour should do it then and those wanting to risk money on the Tories should wait. That’s proved to be good advice and since then the markets have moved in the way we thought they would. The Spreadfair Labour buy price is now 355 seats and the Tory spreads are 193-197 seats. The big drivers of…
But will Theresa May hold on in Maidenhead? With just two days left for people to get their entries in for our General Election Competition Politicalbetting users are predicting a Labour vote margin of 3.4%, an overall majority of 63 and that it’s touch and go whether the former Conservative chairman, Theresa May, will hang on to her Maidenhead seat. Inputting the average vote margin into Martin Baxter’s calculator you need to factor in a tactical vote unwind of -2.5%…
What’s behind the “step down” rumours? William Hill have cut their odds about Tony Blair resigning as Labour leader during 2005 from 5/2 to 2/1 – and lengthened their odds about him surviving as Prime Minister for longer than Margaret Thatcher from 4/1 to 9/2. According to the bookmaker: “the political rumour mill seems to be full of stories suggesting that Mr Blair will be going sooner rather than later, so we are adjusting our odds accordingly’. The Blair to…
Labour sell price down three A sign of the complete confidence that Gordon Brown has in a Labour victory at the election is the report this morning that he is considering going “it alone in the run-up to the general election after being “excluded” from campaign preparations by Downing Street. The report in the Independent observes: In a sign of serious tensions between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, Mr Brown signalled that he would be forming his own ideas…
But if not the Chancellor – who? The current best price on Gordon Brown to be next leader of the Labour Party is 1/4. That means that if you bet £100 your winnings would be £25 and given Tony Blair’s statement about his plans then you could be waiting for, maybe, four years to collect. If so your winnings would barely cover the interest on putting the money in the building society. But have the recent promotions of Charles Clarke…
…or will the price slip further Following the decline of the Tories in the spread betting markets and the new version of the Martin Baxter seat calculator with a tactical unwind element a number of people have asked whether we consider that the party is now a good buy. We think that the current spread level is based on the depressed opinion poll ratings for the party and the ongoing poor publicity that Michael Howard is getting. We do not…
! Which MPs should be thinking about their future careers? If you are returning to your computer today after the holiday don’t forget to enter our General Election Competition – entries close on Saturday. Already a big range of predictions has emerged and there has been particular interest in several of the seat-specific elements. Bethnal Green and Bow has produced a range of predictions covering four possible outcomes. Will George Galloway do it? If he doesn’t will his campaign undermine…