Why has Betfair become so boring?

Why has Betfair become so boring?

Where are the “Will Alistair Go markets” of today? There was a time when the hot activity in the political betting markets was on the Betfair betting exchange. This was driven by a series of innovative betting propositions that caught the imagination of punters. Would Alistair Campbell survive his grilling at the Hutton inquiry?; what were the survival chances of Geoff Hoon?; would Greg Dyke hold onto his job as Director-General of the BBC?; was IDS’s position as Tory leader…

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A General Election “sure thing”?

A General Election “sure thing”?

Is this the way to a near-certain profit? One of the site’s regular contributors, Jon, has come forward with an ingenious plan that could be the nearest there is to a “sure thing” on the General Election. His idea is simple – BUY the Tories at £10 a seat, at the level 195 seats on the spread-betting markets. At the same time BACK Labour for £1000 to win most seats at the General Election at the current price of 1.18…

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Could the Lib Dem bounce knock Blair off course?

Could the Lib Dem bounce knock Blair off course?

What if the Lib Dems gain 5% during the campaign? The big question for all those trying to forecast the 2005 General Election is will there be the traditional Lib Dem bounce? For at every General Election since 1987 the Lib Dems have enjoyed spectacular increases of support during the formal campaign – in each case taking votes from Labour. In 1992, 1997 and 2001 the party was starting from a poll position in the low and mid-teens. This time…

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Politcos put up prize for our competition

Politcos put up prize for our competition

The online political bookshop, Politicos, has agreed to put up the prize for our General Election Prediction Competition. What are described as £150 worth of “political anoraky things” will be presented to the entrant who gets most points in the competition, which closed on Saturday. Just under 100 site users have submitted entries and the marking will take place when the full results are known. The competition has attracted media coverage and there was a good reference in the Atticus…

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Polling Confusion at the Indpendent

Polling Confusion at the Indpendent

One article says Labour’s lead is down – another says it isn’t A new NOP poll in the Independent shows a drop in the Labour lead from 9% to 6% – or does it? It all depends on which of the paper’s commentators you believe. The Strathclyde politics professor, John Curtice, describes the poll in these terms:- Labour currently has a six-point lead over the Conservatives in our NOP poll, enough to ensure that Mr Blair would be re-elected for…

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Will Brown’s Chancellorship survive 2005?

Will Brown’s Chancellorship survive 2005?

Hills offer 7/4 on Gordon going in 2005 With both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown trying to calm the atmosphere following the weekend’s revelations about what Brown said about trusting his boss William Hill have opened a market on the Chancellor staying in his post for the whole of 2005. The price is 7/4 that Gordon Brown will cease to be Chancellor by January 1, 2006 – and 2/5 that he is still in the post on that date. Given…

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The Tory decade of flat-lining

The Tory decade of flat-lining

APOLOGIES FOR EARLIER TECHNICAL PROBLEMS The great consolation for Labour with its current problems is that the Tories remain completely stuck. The following show the average annual opinion poll ratings from ICM for the Conservatives over the past ten years and although there has been a small improvement the figures remain pretty consistent. 1995 29% 1996 30.4% 1997 29.2% (General Election 31.4%) 1998 29.6% 1999 30% 2000 32.5% (excluding petrol crisis surveys) 2001 31.25% (General Election 32.7%) 2002 31.2% 2003…

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Our competition makes the news

Our competition makes the news

The Atticus column is the Sunday Times today covers our General Election competition. It notes: Gamblers are predicting a Labour majority of 63 at the next election. Voters’ views have been collected by PoliticalBetting.Com, a political website, whose founder Mike Smithson says: “The top prediction so far is 130. The worst predicted result for Labour is being 22 MPs short of an overall majority.” There’s bad news, too, for Tory Theresa May: most gamblers say she’ll lose her Maidenhead seat….

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