But will Theresa May hold on in Maidenhead?
With just two days left for people to get their entries in for our General Election Competition Politicalbetting users are predicting a Labour vote margin of 3.4%, an overall majority of 63 and that it’s touch and go whether the former Conservative chairman, Theresa May, will hang on to her Maidenhead seat.
Inputting the average vote margin into Martin Baxter’s calculator you need to factor in a tactical vote unwind of -2.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems to get the predicted majority.
Nobody has been bold enough to predict that Labour will have anything like the majority that it achieved in 2001 – which on the new boundaries would work out at 160. The top prediction so far is 130. The worst predicted result for Labour is being 22 MPs short of an overall majority.
The predicted vote margin of 3.4% is just under six points down on the 2001 General Election and is two thirds of the current 5.1% opinion poll average. I am grateful to Andy Cooke for compiling the running tally.
All the seat options have divided our entrants with Labour’s loss to Plaid of Ynys Mon the certain prediction and a Lib Dem gain in Bristol West the second. After Maidenhead, St. Albans looks very tight as does Colne Valley
1. Labour Majority. Range -22 to +130. Average 63.01.
2. Labour Lead. Range -2 to +7.5. Average +3.44%.
3. Top Pollster. YouGov 41. ICM 16. Mori 8. Populus 1 (write in). CR 1. (see note below)
4. Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour 40, Respect 18, Con 8, LD 1.
5. Bristol West. LD 55, Labour 9, Con 3.
6. Cambridge. Labour 50. LD 17.
7. Colne Valley. Labour 35. Con 27. LD 5.
8. Inverness. Labour 33. LD 21. SNP 13.
9. Maidenhead. LD 35. Con 32.
10. St Albans. Con 36. Lab 30. LD 1.
11. Upper Bann. UUP 41. DUP 26.
12. Ynys Mon. PC 59. Labour 8.
Populus Polls – an apology When compiling the competition we inadvertently “lost” Populus as one of the pollster options. Our sincere apologies to the firm and to Andrew Cooper, its head, who has always been ready to contribute to the site and operates what we consider to be the most transparent of the national polling organisations. If entrants wish to change their choice to Populus they can do before the competition closes. Please leave a comment on the the main entry page.