AND NOW – the Martin Baxter Calculator WITH TACTICAL UNWIND

AND NOW – the Martin Baxter Calculator WITH TACTICAL UNWIND

Will Martin’s new calculator change the way we look at the election? The former Cambridge and now city mathematician, Martin Baxter, has produced a new version of his famous Commons seat calculator to build in an element of tactical vote unwind. This is the effect that a number of experts think might happen as a result of Lib Dem supporters returning to their normal allegiance after switching to Labour in 1997 and 2001 to get the Tories out. If this…

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Tory spread price now just 32 seats up on 2001

Tory spread price now just 32 seats up on 2001

The Tory rollercoaster continues to fall With the Tory buy price on the spread markets down to 197 seats – just 32 more than the 2001 General Election total – the question of whether there will be another Tory calamity depends on the outcome of a battle in which the party will hardly be involved and over which, like William Hague’s rollercoaster in the picture, it has little control For the real issue that will determine whether it is Blair…

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Is UKIP a spent force without this man?

Is UKIP a spent force without this man?

What happens when the money runs out Apart from George Bush no American has had a greater impact on UK politics in the past year than Dick Morris. He was the election strategist who masterminded victory for President Bill Clinton, and was hired to be the brains behind the United Kingdom Independence party’s campaign at the Euro Elections last June. His involvement was first noticed by the then Observer columnist, Nick Cohen, who more than two months beforehand wrote this…

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How the broadcasting rules will thwart UKIP

How the broadcasting rules will thwart UKIP

UKIP will get less than 2% of the national vote The UKIP threat to Michael Howard’s party at the General Election could be blunted by the rules which determine how the broadcasting organisations are allowed to cover the campaign once it has been declared. For although these have yet to be finalised they will almost certainly follow previous practice and allocate the lion’s share of election broadcasts to those defined as “major parties” – Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and, in…

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Our Election Prediction Competition

Our Election Prediction Competition

Something more to argue about New Year’s Eve and a good moment to launch our General Election Prediction Competition. Apart from the honour and the recognition from your peers we are hoping that a sponsor will provide a suitable prize. At the moment the best we have got is a colour picture of Ken Livingstone with his autograph on it and a Tony Blair mug where the nose grows as you pour in hot water. Post your entries as a…

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Help wanted – General Election Competition

Help wanted – General Election Competition

I am compiling a General Election Prediction competition which as well as the general forecasts has six or seven seat specific elements. At the moment I’ve got Bethnal Green & Bow (George Galloway); Cambridge (the most discussed seat on the site) ; Dorset West (Oliver Letwin’s and a LD decapitation target) ; Brent East (by-election follow-up) and St. Albans (possible tactical vote unwind) . I’d like interesting Scottish and Welsh seats as well as any other suggestions for seats that…

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Can Blair appeal to the liberal and illiberal at the same time?

Can Blair appeal to the liberal and illiberal at the same time?

In his attempt to pull off an unprecedented and spectacular third General Election victory Tony Blair is making crime/law & order/ and immigration the centre pieces of Labour’s policy portfolio. These were the main items in the Queen’s Speech last month and they are the centre part of his New Year’s message, just published. Before the 1997 Election Blair had the brilliant “Tough on Crime – Tough on the Causes of Crime” rhetoric to underpin his appeal to both the…

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Combine Blunkett & Blair – a possible arbitrage

Combine Blunkett & Blair – a possible arbitrage

One of the great pleasures of political gambling is when you find situations where whatever happens you end up a winner. With the news in the Sun today that David Blunkett will return to the Cabinet if Tony Blair wins the election then an interesting situation opens up. The current best price on Blunkett returning during 2005 is 4/1 which, given the Sun’s status as almost the “official mouthpiece of New Labour” for such things, makes that the best bet…

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