The battle between the pollsters gets more heated

The battle between the pollsters gets more heated

Will the General Election end the YouGov controversy? With the Tories claiming that the pollsters have a systemic bias to Labour there’s going to be much more focus on the battle that has been dividing the polling world – the one between the internet pollster, YouGov and the firms that carry out conventional surveys. A flavour of the ferocity of the argument can be seen in the comments from Andrew Copper, boss of Populus, in these exchanges here from UK…

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New site to focus on every single seat

New site to focus on every single seat

Politicalbetting user Daniel Hamilton has set up a new site providing a discussion forum platform on every single one of the 646 seats that will be contested at the General Election. Lots of familiar names from our discussion forums are contributing to the site which looks like it will be an excellent resource for the coming campaign. We had been planning something like this ourselves but our main conern in recent weeks has been to ensure that Politicalbetting’s infrastructure is…

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Will Alistair Campbell finally meet his match?

Will Alistair Campbell finally meet his match?

bbc Can Lynton Crosby really grapple with the Labour spin machine? After more than a decade of almost total dominance of the media could the New Labour machine, now joined again by Alistair Campbell, be finally meeting its match. Is the Tory party getting its PR and campaigning act together? In the past week or so we’ve seen moves by Michael Howard’s party that would have been unheard at previous elections. There’s the concerted attack on Campbell’s return to centre…

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Why are the polls so different?

Why are the polls so different?

Could it be the way they ask the questions? With the current claims by the Tories that the polls have a systemic bias in favour of Labour eveybody seems to ignore the fact that each firm puts the voting intention question in a unique way. There are subtle differences that could have an impact on their figures. MORI which has been in this game for longest, put it very simply: “How would you vote if there were a General Election…

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Latest YouGov figures put Labour’s lead at 1%

Latest YouGov figures put Labour’s lead at 1%

bbc Take the interviewer away and Blair’s party drops 7% Starkingly contrasting figures to the telephone-based Populus Poll have just been published on the YouGov website. They are from the Mail on Sunday survey on immigration which also collected party share information which is what is now available. The figures are with comparisons to today’s Populus poll: CON 33 (+1), LAB 34 (-7), LD 23 (+5). It is important to note that the field-work took place a day ahead of…

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Markets unmoved by Populus Poll

Markets unmoved by Populus Poll

Is it just the Lib Dems being out of the lime-light? This morning’s poll in the Times by Populus has had little effect on the spread-betting markets – even though it shows Labour at 41% – the party’s highest rating with the firm since the Iraq war. The figures, discussed in the previous article – LAB 41 (+3): CON 32 (-1): LD 18 (-2). – were revealed on Channel 4 early yesterday evening and there was plenty of time for…

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Populus puts Labour at 41%

Populus puts Labour at 41%

Sensational figures from the Times’s pollster The February Populus Poll to be published in the Times tomorrow puts Labour on 41% – just one point less than it achieved in the 2001 General Election. The vote shares showing the variation since January are: LAB 41 (+3): CON 32 (-1): LD 18 (-2). These are staggering figures and mean that pollster has Labour up from 28% in September when Populus had them in third place. In the same period the pollster…

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Will the immigration plan stop Lib Dem defections?

Will the immigration plan stop Lib Dem defections?

bbc Can Labour fight on two fronts With the Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, seeking today to neutralise the Tory moves on immigration with tough plans of his own the big question in electoral terms is how well this will go down with Labour’s Lib Dem leaning supporters who could decide the next election. The problem Labour strategists have is that they cannot risk Labour-Tory vote shifts which the polls seem to indicate could happen on immigration policy. Last month ICM…

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