Markets unmoved by Populus Poll

Markets unmoved by Populus Poll

    Is it just the Lib Dems being out of the lime-light?

This morning’s poll in the Times by Populus has had little effect on the spread-betting markets – even though it shows Labour at 41% – the party’s highest rating with the firm since the Iraq war.

The figures, discussed in the previous articleLAB 41 (+3): CON 32 (-1): LD 18 (-2). – were revealed on Channel 4 early yesterday evening and there was plenty of time for the markets to react. The only movement was a slight reduction in the Lib Dem spread and this might fall a notch or two during the day.

IG Index spread prices: LAB 352-359 : CON 192-199: LDs 70-74 . Spreadfair prices: LAB 355.5-358 : CON 191-194 : LDs 71-72.9

The two pollsters that were closest in 2001 – ICM and YouGov – tend to have a bigger impact on punters than the others. The latest figures themselves fall into the same pattern as other pollsters and other surveys. The Tories remain fairly static at 32-33% while the big changes are between the Lib Dems and Labour which between them usually secure 58-61% of the predicted shares.

    If Labour goes up then Charles Kennedy’s party goes down and vice versa.

With the headlines focussing on the battle between the Tories and Labour on immigration and asylum policy there’s been very little attention on Charles Kennedy and his party. There’s also been the Iraqi elections. The Lib Dems thrive on publicity and see their ratings rise after by-elections, during their conference, and, of course, during General Election campaigns when the broadcasting rules give them more access.

The next scheduled poll should be by NOP in the Indpendent which the paper has commissioned three or four times in recent months.

© Mike Smithson 2005

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