Was Milburn’s “fight dirty” comment wise?

Was Milburn’s “fight dirty” comment wise?

According to the Independent on Sunday’s main story this morning Labour’s campaign chief, Alan Milburn, warned delegates at a private meeting at the party conference in Gateshead that the party had to “fight dirty” in order to avoid defeat. The report by Andy McSmith and Francis Elliott states: Alan Milburn secretly told Labour activists yesterday that the party needs to keep up its “dirty tricks” campaign to raise public interest in the coming general election, or see the Government’s 161-seat…

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Labour down sharply in Scotland – YouGov

Labour down sharply in Scotland – YouGov

Updated 0930 But System 3 shows a different picture A YouGov poll of Scottish voters in Scotland on Sunday today has with changes from a similar poll north of the border in June – LAB 33 (-4), SNP 20 (-2), LD 20 (+4), CON 19 (+2). The paper calculates that, on a uniform swing, that of Scotland’s 59 seats Labour would get 37, the Lib Dems 13, the SNP 6 and the Conservatives 3. So even with less than a…

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Is Blair pulling the Hartlepool date trick?

Is Blair pulling the Hartlepool date trick?

updated 0730 bbc Why is Labour’s “Spring” conference taking place in early February? When it comes to acts of deception over the timing of elections Tony Blair’s government has got form. Just six months ago Downing Street was briefing heavily that the date of the Harlepool by-election was going to be on Thursday October 7th. This was reported in the press and was widely believed. But when the announcement came in there was a huge surprise – instead of the…

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It’s 7/2 against a Hung Parliament

It’s 7/2 against a Hung Parliament

But there are less risky bets The new betting markets are coming thick and fast and the latest on the scene is whether or not there will be a hung parliament. The prices are 7/2 against there being one and 1/6 on there not. To win a “yes” bet here Labour would have to get 323 seats or less. We are not particularly impressed by the price and there are other less risky ways of having a punt on Labour…

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Shouldn’t we focus on Labour’s defences?

Shouldn’t we focus on Labour’s defences?

Is Fortress Labour vulnerable? All the talk on the site is how can the Tories and Lib Dems make inroads into the the scores of seats that they have to take in order to make an impact at the coming election. But there’s hardly any attention paid to how Labour is going about holding onto the exceptional and disproportionate gains that it chalked up in 1997 and 2001. In both elections it will be recalled Labour’s seat tally was well…

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Will turnout really be lower than last time?

Will turnout really be lower than last time?

It’s 11/4 against 60% or more As the election day gets closer – whether it’s May 5 or not – the bookies are opening new markets and you can now bet on turnout. This is the market from Skybet. 0 – 55% 11/8 60 +% 11/4 55 – 60% 11/8 In 2001 just 21.87 m out of the total electorate of 37m bothered to go to the polls producing a turnout percentage of just over 59%. Is that going to…

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Could Charles’s wedding affect the May 5th election time-table?

Could Charles’s wedding affect the May 5th election time-table?

Is 5/1 against it NOT being May 5th now a good bet? The current price on the Betfair “Will it be May 5th” market is 5/1 against that not being the day. Could the Royal Wedding impact on the time-table and force Tony Blair to move the election back or bring it forward? I am grateful to Anthony Wells for advising that the election timetable is fixed in stone. The polling day is automatically exactly 17 days after the dissolution…

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A Politicalbetting election party

A Politicalbetting election party

Can we discuss the idea here Our interesting thread on serious issues relating to opinion polling has got somewhat hi-jacked by a discussion on a possible Politicalbetting party. The idea is to create a get-together where we could meet one another and put faces to names. What do site users think of the idea? When should it be – post or pre General Election? Where should it be? One idea was at the House of Commons where we would need…

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