Is MORI right – are we heading for 55%? When we last looked at turnout we suggested that the reason 2001 was so low was because nobody believed that William Hague’s Tories had any chance of defeating Tony Blair and the Election was seen as a foregone conclusion. This time, we argued, that received opinion has it that it will be a foregone conclusion once again – but Labour’s poll leads are nothing like what they were four years ago…
Who’ll win the battle for the Lab-Lib Dem Waverers? Detailed data from two recent polls has provided more information about the segment of the electorate who will shape Tony Blair’s future CV – those who are wavering between his party and the Lib Dems. These are divided into two distinct groups:- Labour supporters who are considering switching to Charles Kennedy’s party because of the war, tuition fees or a host of other possible issues. They represent about 10% of all…
bbc A crumb of comfort for Michael Howard? Most of the assumptions on how many seats each party is likely to get for a given vote share are based on appyling the predicted changes on a national basis and doing a computation in each seat to see what happens there. It’s rough and ready but, in the past, has been a reasonably reliable guide. The best known calculator is the one produced by Martin Baxter. At the last two elections…
The biggest lead since the Iraq War February’s NOP opinion poll for the Independent has LAB 42: CON 30: LD 18 in figures that look similar to those produced by Populus last week and will do nothing to reinforce Tony Blair’s weekend warning about the Tories being a threat We will put our normal variation numbers on these figures when we have been able to confirm them. Last month there was a muddle at the paper when two writers were…
bbc Isn’t Blair’s “the Tories are a threat” claim hard to swallow? With the pollsters showing Tory deficits of between 1-9% and an electoral geography that means that the Labour party will win most seats on a uniform swing even if it’s 5% behind it’s no wonder that the balance of money on the betting markets is on the Tories getting less than 200 seats. For a majority they need 324 MPs. One of the many problems is that the…
This is our first round up of the latest prices showing all the main markets. Where more than one bookmaker is offering prices we give the best one from our betting odds search engine. Click on the market name for more details. Party winning most seats Labour: 3/25 Conservative: 6/1 (8.8/1 – Betting Exchange) Liberal Democrat: 66/1 (139/1 – Betting Exchange) A Hung Parliament? Yes: 7/2 No : 1/6 General Election Date Apr – Jun 2005 : 0.13/1 Jan –…
Introducing Mr Tangerine Man and other videos A novel aspect of the coming election campaign will be the flash video animations that are being produced and circulated by email and the internet. Quite what political impact they will have we do not know but this is a form of communication that could engage new groups of voters. The best – and one which will be enjoyed across the political spectrum – is Eclectech’s Mr. Tangerine Man – an amusing movie…
But how long will the Tories have to wait? On election night there’ll be a betting market that is even more of a foregone conclusion than that on Labour winning most seats – the one on which constituency will declare first. And given the amazing performance of Sunderland South last time it’s hard to see any other seat getting a look in. For the declaration of Chris Mullin’s victory from Wearside came at just 10-43 pm – three minutes faster…