Will the immigration plan stop Lib Dem defections?

Will the immigration plan stop Lib Dem defections?

bbc Can Labour fight on two fronts With the Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, seeking today to neutralise the Tory moves on immigration with tough plans of his own the big question in electoral terms is how well this will go down with Labour’s Lib Dem leaning supporters who could decide the next election. The problem Labour strategists have is that they cannot risk Labour-Tory vote shifts which the polls seem to indicate could happen on immigration policy. Last month ICM…

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Is talk of a hung parliament being far-fetched?

Is talk of a hung parliament being far-fetched?

bbc Let’s do some number-crunching The veteran political commentator, Alan Watkins, returns to the theme of a possible hung Parliament in his column in the Indpendent on Sunday this morning. He notes that he is just one of three pundits who have been prepared to contemplate such an outcome – the others being the former Times editor, William Rees-Mogg and the Strathclyde Professor of Politics, John Curtice. Given current polling numbers how far-fetched is Watkins being? The answer’s not very….

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Where are the Labour punters?

Where are the Labour punters?

When’s the normal pre-election poll swing to the Government going to happen? The move back to the Tories on the spread-betting markets has continued with the money going on Michael Howard’s party. There are few Labour punters about at current prices. In just two weeks the IG Index “spread” on the Tories, based on what punters are prepared to bet, has moved from 183-190 seats to today’s price of 192 -199 seats. It seems that a lot of the betting…

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What do we make of the Liam Fox analysis?

What do we make of the Liam Fox analysis?

Are things better for the Tories than they look? The Tory Chairman, Liam Fox, is reported to have set out the following analysis – some of it “borrowed” from Politicalbetting – to MPs on why he thinks things are not as bad for the party as some are predicting. Stage One: Take the current polls which put Labour on 37 per cent, with the Conservatives on 32 per cent and the Lib-Dems on 21. TRUE – and we believe that…

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Could the Scottish Regiment issue cost Labour seats?

Could the Scottish Regiment issue cost Labour seats?

Will anti-Labour voters rally behind the Regiment Campaign’s chosen candidates? One critical side issue of the coming campaign will be how well Labour deals with what looks like a sophisticated campaign in Scotland as part of the effort to save the Scottish Regiments. For instead of putting up candidates in a range of seats the Save the Scottish Regiments Campaign has evolved a twin strategy to maximise their influence. It is fielding one independent in East Kilbride but has annouced…

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Could Blair be considering an April election?

Could Blair be considering an April election?

The Tory chairman Liam Fox has suggested that Tony Blair might “cut and run” and call a snap election. One date pencilled in by Mr Fox’s team is April 21 – two weeks earlier than the widely tipped May 5 – and campaign workers have been ordered on to full alert. Fox has been quoted as saying: “I believe there are a number of reasons why Labour needs to get this election out of the way early. “They are over-borrowing…

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Will using Michael Howard’s slogan secure Blair’s third term?

Will using Michael Howard’s slogan secure Blair’s third term?

updated 0645 After all the fuss about the alleged anti-semitic tone of Labour’s election advertising the party has now launched its main slogan for the coming election – “Britain – forward not back” And if you think that you’ve heard this line before you have – from Michael Howard! As Curtis, one of our eagle-eyed users has spotted, the phrase “…forward not back” was the same slogan used by the Tory leader when he announced his candiditure in October 2003….

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It’s 16/1 against Veritas winning a Westminster seat

It’s 16/1 against Veritas winning a Westminster seat

What will the electorate make of the party with a Latin name? After last night’s launch of Robert Kilroy-Silk’s new party ‘Veritas’, bookmakers William Hill are offering 20/1 that Mr Kilroy-Silk will win Geoff Hoon’s Ashfield seat (Nottinghamshire) at the next election. Hills also offer 16/1 that Veritas will win one or more seats at the next election. So far the market does not appear to be online and we only hope that the bookmaker will allow internet punters to…

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