Could the Scottish Regiment issue cost Labour seats?

Could the Scottish Regiment issue cost Labour seats?

    Will anti-Labour voters rally behind the Regiment Campaign’s chosen candidates?

One critical side issue of the coming campaign will be how well Labour deals with what looks like a sophisticated campaign in Scotland as part of the effort to save the Scottish Regiments.

For instead of putting up candidates in a range of seats the Save the Scottish Regiments Campaign has evolved a twin strategy to maximise their influence. It is fielding one independent in East Kilbride but has annouced a list of Labour held seats where it will be endorsing selected SNP, Tory or Lib Dem candidates.

    The danger for Labour is if this is seen as a form of tactical voting that will rally anti-Labour votes on issues broader than the Scottish Regiment changes

Quite how this will work is unclear but the cross-party nature of their activity should give it an extra potency and crediblity. The target seats are:-

Aberdeen South – backing Lib Dems
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale – backing Tory
Dundee East – backing SNP
Dundee West – backing SNP
East Renfrewshire – backing Tory
Edinburgh South West– backing Tory
Na h-Eileanan An Iar – backing SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire – backing SNP
Stirling – backing Tory

In the betting IG Index has the SNP at 5.75 – 6.25. If this looks as though it might work then an SNP buy bet might be good value.

Copyright 2005 Mike Smithson

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