If people think the Tories might win, they won’t. If they think they won’t, they might Everyday thousands of internet users in at least ninety countries round the world are visiting the site to read the articles and the discussions try to find out what is going on in the May 5th General Election. Everyday at least half a dozen overseas news organisations contact me and ask for my view of what the outcome will be. Everyday I am reminded…
Labour majority projection UP but vote share DOWN Projected vote shares: LAB 36.8 (-0.4): CON 34.3 (+0.1) : LD 21.4 (nc) Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (+4) Contrasting fortunes for Labour in our balance of money projections which are based on the collective view of gamblers as they invest their money. After yesterday’s standstill in the projected Labour majority heavy betting today has pushed the overall majority projection up by four seats – but the party has slipped…
Is now the time to bet on the Lib Dems? With just 15 days to go the avalanche of polls and new betting markets continues. There are three new surveys in this morning papers – two of them using methodology similar to ICM’s that we discussed last night – and we compare them all with the last similar poll. NOP in the Independent has CON 32 (nc): LAB 37 (-1) :LD 21 (nc) Populus in the Times has CON 31(-4):…
Do you believe the pollster’s mathematics? FACT: For their Mirror survey published this morning 341 people told ICM that they had voted Labour last time. Yet only 291 said that they were planning to vote for the party on May 5th – a decline of about a sixth YET the headline figure that was published was that Labour would get 41% – just one percent down on what the party got four years ago. SO the opinion poll that has…
The money is still going on Labour Projected vote shares: LAB 37.2 (+0.7): CON 34.2 (-0.3) : LS 21.4 (+0.1) Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 72 seats (nc) As the avalanche of polls continues there’s been a huge amount of betting activity during the day but our BALANCE OF MONEY predictions have not moved very much. On the vote shares Labour now has a 3% lead. As we state every day the bookmakers are operating all UK figures while the…
Will the “bottom up” approach give us a better indication? A comment by Bluemoon last night has prompted the exciting thought that we might be able to project an overall outcome for May 5th based on the betting on individual consituencies where there are online betting markets. (scroll down for all the seats) For rather than do this on a “top down” basis the collective decisions of gamblers about what they know in specific seats could start to give us…
Few market moves as punters consider the impact of Rover Projected vote shares: LAB 36.5 (+0.25): CON 34.5 (-0.25) : LS 21.3 (+0.3) Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 72 seats (+4) The four new polls this morning, particuarly the one from ICM showing Labour’s lead over the Tories at a higher level than four years ago, has led to upward movement in the seat numbers market and an increase of four in the procted Labour majority. But it has had…
More spread markets open on the popular vote With four new polls in the papers this morning showing wildly different views of public opinion all the spread-betting firms are now offering markets on what the eventual vote shares will be on May 5th. Will it be the new internet pollsters that are calling this correctly or can you rely on the traditional phone interview polling? These spreads form the basis of our daily BALANCE of MONEY predictions which we publish…