Which opinion poll do YOU think has got it right

Which opinion poll do YOU think has got it right


    More spread markets open on the popular vote

With four new polls in the papers this morning showing wildly different views of public opinion all the spread-betting firms are now offering markets on what the eventual vote shares will be on May 5th. Will it be the new internet pollsters that are calling this correctly or can you rely on the traditional phone interview polling?

These spreads form the basis of our daily BALANCE of MONEY predictions which we publish each afternoon. With the challenge of assessing how many seats each party becoming even more tricky the bets offer a different means for punters to back up their judgements which are helped by the opinion polls.

The current vote shares spreads are:-
Spreadfair LAB 36.25-36.75: CON 34.25 – 34.75: LD 21 – 21.5
IG Index LAB 36.9: CON 34.3 – 35.2: LD 20.8 – 21.8
Sporting Index LAB 36-36.75: CON 34.25 – 35: LD 20.5 – 21.25

These spreads cannot be compared fully with current poll figures because the latter are restricted to Great Britain and do not include Northern Ireland. Last time Labour’s GB total was 1.3% ahead, the Tory party was 1% and the LDs were half a per cent greater than the all-UK totals.

    So for punters convinced by this morning’s ICM figures of 40-30-23 there could be money to be made.

What is interesting is that the balance of money seems to be going on a YouGov or BPIX view of the election rather than the phone interview pollsters which all overstated Labour and understated the Conservatives last time.

POLLING UPDATE: I have had to buy a Mail on Sunday to get full details of the BPIX poll – (the whole paper was wrapped in polythene so I could not read it in the shop). Of those “certain to vote” the shares were: LAB 35: CON 36: LD 20. Of all voters the split was LAB 36: CON 33: LD 22. This is a much narrower gap between the certains and all expressing intentions of any recent survey. In the same poll last week Labour and the Tories were level pegging amongst the certains.

Mike Smithson

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