New polls…New markets..

New polls…New markets..

    Is now the time to bet on the Lib Dems?

With just 15 days to go the avalanche of polls and new betting markets continues. There are three new surveys in this morning papers – two of them using methodology similar to ICM’s that we discussed last night – and we compare them all with the last similar poll.

  • NOP in the Independent has CON 32 (nc): LAB 37 (-1) :LD 21 (nc)
  • Populus in the Times has CON 31(-4): LAB 40 (+3): LD 21 (+2)
  • A Mori phone survey in the FT has CON 31 (-1): LAB 40 (nc) : LD 21 (+2)
  • So the steady improvement in the Lib Dem position that was reported over the weekend is seen in two of these polls which must give a lot of encouragement to Charles Kennedy and his party. The Populus survey will be welcomed by the Labour camp while the Conservatives will be encouraged by the move towards them in the NOP poll.

    With the main outcome almost a foregone conclusion the bookmakers continue to provide creative markets to tempt us to bet. One new one might find favour with Lib Dem supporters encouraged by their progress in the polls. It is a spread from IG Index on how many seats the party will come in second place on May 5th. The opening spread is 132 – 138 .

    On all three spread markets – Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index – the Lib Dem vote has been edging forward although the number of MPshas been steady.

    For Tories who might be buoyed up by their progress north of the border BinaryBet now have a Tartan Tories market. In 1997 the party was wiped out in the country. Last time they picked up one seat – could they now do more? With a Binary bet you can bet for or against.

    Mike Smithson

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