5am UPDATE 5am UPDATE Lib Dems advancing in most surveys We understand that there are going to be at least five news polls tonight for tomorrow’s papers. In all cases we have compared the polls with what the same pollster was reporting last time. First up – from YouGov for the Sunday Times has LAB 36 (-2): CON 35 (+2): LD 23 (+1). This should ease some of the conerns in the Tory camp after the shock 5% Labour lead…
Few market moves as punters consider the impact of Rover Projected vote shares: LAB 36.25: CON 34.75: LS 21 Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 68 seats (nc) No new national polls to affect the markets today and there’s been no negative reaction for Labour on the demise of Rover, as might have been expected. The only move on the projected popular vote market has been a slight increase in the Lib Dem position. It seems that punters expect a falling…
Has Blair given the Tories the weapon to get more votes out in the marginals? Probably the most revealing statistics to come out of the past week were in the list of postal voting applications in different seats and local authority areas published in yesterday’s Times. For they show the product of the “hidden†campaign that has been taking place over the past six months – the huge direct marketing effort in the marginal seats. Select voters have been bombarded…
YouGov adds to Tory market depression Projected vote shares: LAB 36.25: CON 34.75: LS 20.75 Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 68 seats (+4) The two pollsters punters seem to take most notice of are ICM and YouGov so the fact that both have reported similar big leads for Labour has caused the markets to react strongly and the projected Labour majority has gone up a further four seats for the second day running. On the projected poll share market the…
What are the implications for punters? A big investigation in the Times this morning shows a huge increase in postal voting applications from marginal seats and raises concerns about the role the party machines – and not just Labour – have played in the process. From the pure betting perspective this must make the current turnout markets even more attractive. The IG Index spread is just 60.75-61.75% while Spreadfair, have 60.4-61.3%. The best conventional bookie price of 6/5 for 63%…
Polling agony for the Tories as even YouGov shows big Labour lead At the end of a fairly torrid week for the Tories the internet pollster, YouGov, in the Telegraph this morning is showing a Labour lead of 5% – up from level-pegging just a few days ago. The big beneficiary of a Tory fall of 3% has been the Lib Dems who are now at 22%. The headline figures are: LAB 38 (+2): CON 33 (-3): LD 22 (+2)…
ICM’s 6% lead pushes the markets further to Labour Projected vote shares: LAB 36.75: CON 35.25: LS 20.75 Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 64 seats (+4) We have now included a vote-share projection to our regular BALANCE OF MONEY prediction based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index. We take the mid-points in the commons seats and vote share markets and produce an average in…
Is there money to be made backing the pollsters? Spread-betting gamblers are ignoring the recent opinion polls move to Labour and are putting their money on a Labour lead of just 1% in the popular vote on May 5th. The mid-points of the spreads on the IG Index popular vote market are: LAB 36.5: CON 35.5: LD 20.75 and the only movement in the past week has been towards the Lib Dems. If the latest NOP and ICM polls showing…