Most desired outcome: “Labour – but with Blair’s wings clipped” A new ICM poll for the website Strategicvoter shows that the vast majority of voters do not want either Labour or the Tories to win big on May 5th. The pollster asked more than 1000 people to choose between six possible outcomes and this is what they found:- 23 % wanted a Labour overall majority of 30+ seats 15% wanted a Labour majority but less than 30 seats 10% wanted…
POLITICALBETTING “BALANCE OF MONEY†prediction: Labour majority 52 (+1) Today’s YouGov poll was the first from any pollster for a fortnight showing an improvement in Labour fortunes – albeit by just one point – and this has taken some of the steam away from the move to the Tories on the spread betting Commons seats markets that have characterised the opening week of the campaign. The price moves on the spread-betting markets are just enough to produce the change in…
In a massive poll of more than 5,000 people for the Daily Telegraph YouGov are reporting a slight shift back to Labour compared with the “quickie” survey that was carried out for Sky News in the aftermath of the General Election announcement. The headline figures are LAB 36: CON 35: LD 21. The poll was carried out on the 5th and 6th of April and is almost identical to the YouGov poll carried out for Sky News on the 5th…
Big slump for SNP A Mori Poll published tonight on Scottish TV has the Tories in second place in the country where they won just one of the 72 seats at the 2001 General Election. The poll is remarkable because the SNP has been pushed into third equal place with the Lib Dems. The figures are with comparisons on the 2001 General Election result : LAB 47 (+4): CON 18 (+2): SNP 15 (-5): LD 15 (-1). We’ve commented here…
Politicalbetting “Balance of Money†prediction: Labour majority 51 (-1) Not much movement in the Labour price today except just a small continuation of yesterday’s downward pressure. The mid-point average on Labour seats on spread betting markets that we feature is now 348.5 which means that the “balance of money prediction has moved just one seat to a Labour majority of 51 seats. Opinion Polls: No new polls today – the only development has been the detailed data sets from Tuesday’s…
Even though the polls are tightening and only the pollsters that carry out their surveys by telephone are showing Labour leads is Tony Blair’s party still such a certainy to win most seats that the price of 1/12 represents good value for money? Or to put it like a journalist asked me yesterday – would I advise switching funds from the building society to get a return of more than 8% in just four weeks? Are there circumstances where Labour…
Great value in a new spread market on vote shares IG Index have now opened a market on the share of the popular vote the three main parties will get and there’s great value on the Lib Dems. The opening prices are Lab 36 – 37: Con 35 – 36: Lib Dem 19.5 – 20.5. So the buy price on Charles Kennedy’s party is only 1.7 points up on what they achieved four years ago in spite of the fact…
Politicalbetting “Balance of Money†prediction: Labour majority 52 (-2) Sentiment on the betting markets, reinforced by this morning’s YouGov poll, continues to move away from Labour and there’s a change in our “Balance of Money†election prediction. From the average mid-point Labour price from the two spread markets that we feature we are projecting a General Election result based entirely on how political gamblers are risking their money. Yesterday it was at 54 seats – today’s calculation is for a…