Another poll boost for the Tories A new poll by YouGov for Sky News taken since the election was declared has the two parties neck and neck and reflects the moves shown in the batch of polls publised yesterday. The headlne figures are with changes on the last YouGov poll – LAB 36 (+1): CON 36 (+2): LD 21 (-1) On turnout the survey found 65% saying they were definitely planning to vote with Tory supporters more likely to say…
Is Howard’s attack the product of Crosby’s focus groups? Probably the most intriguing element from the launches the party election campaigns was Michael Howard ‘s use of language and his emphasis on Tony Blair’s grin As the Sun reports it this morning… TORY leader Michael Howard yesterday urged voters to wipe the smile from the Prime Minister’s face on May 5. He said: “Tony Blair is already secretly grinning at the prospect of his third victory. You don’t have to…
Which party will end up as the vote winner? With the formal declaration of the May 5th General Election there’s been a host of new betting options and none is more interesting than the new spread-betting market from Spreadfair on the popular vote. For the inequities within Britain’s electoral geography mean that for the Tories to secure an overall majority they need to have a vote margin of perhaps 10% while Tony Blair’s party can still be returned with a…
Politicalbetting “Balance of Money†prediction: Labour majority 54 (-4) The overnight polls have, as expected, led to movement on the spread-betting markets away from Labour causing us to revise our “Balance of Money†election prediction. Each day during the campaign we are taking the average mid-point Labour price from the two spread markets that we feature to project a General Election result based entirely on how political gamblers are risking their money. Yesterday it was at 58 seats – today’s…
Poll boosts for the Tories and Lib Dems as the campaign opens With Tony Blair due to announce the election date today four new polls this morning show that the race could be much tighter than was being forecast. All of them show Labour leads over the Conservatives to be on the decline and one has Michael Howard’s party five points ahead. The polls are with changes on the last surveys from each pollster are:- NOP in the Independent has…
Could Labour suffer after the judge’s stinging attack on minsters? The judge in the postal vote-rigging trial has strongly attacked the government’s attitude to the problem accusing minsters of being not only complacent, but “in denial” about the failings of the system. According to BBC Online Richard Mawrey QC was speaking as he ruled there had been “widespread fraud” in six Birmingham council seats won last year by Labour and his comments come as more voters than ever are preparing…
Does the Telegraph’s survey tell us anything we don’t know? Under the undramatic headline “Election campaign starts tomorrow but swing to Tories will not oust Blair” unusual polling results of a YouGov online survey of nearly 22,000 people since the beginning of the year are featured in the Telegraph this morning. Unlike normal polls which have a very tightly defined survey time but a much smaller sample this covers a very large number of people over a long period. The…
Will punters be more accurate than the pundits or the pollsters? Each day here during the campaign Politicalbetting will take the average mid-point Labour price from the two spread markets that we feature and project a General Election result based entirely on how political gamblers are risking their money. It will be interesting to see whether the balance of money being risked is a more accurate predictor of the result than the opinion polls or other forecasting methodolgies. For while…