Which party will end up as the vote winner?
With the formal declaration of the May 5th General Election there’s been a host of new betting options and none is more interesting than the new spread-betting market from Spreadfair on the popular vote.
For the inequities within Britain’s electoral geography mean that for the Tories to secure an overall majority they need to have a vote margin of perhaps 10% while Tony Blair’s party can still be returned with a majorityof MPs even if he’s in second place and secures barely a third of the national vote.
A completely outrageous outcome on May 5th could dominate the post-election political environment. In the meantime the new market gives punters the opportunity to bet on it.
The current popular vote spreads are LAB 35-38%: CON 33.5-35.5%: LD 22.5-24.5%
This could come down to what opinion poll you believe and how much you are convinced by their methodologies. We think the non-phone pollsters are probably calling this one better and we think that all the three possibilities might happen.