New market on the popular vote

New market on the popular vote

    Which party will end up as the vote winner?

With the formal declaration of the May 5th General Election there’s been a host of new betting options and none is more interesting than the new spread-betting market from Spreadfair on the popular vote.

For the inequities within Britain’s electoral geography mean that for the Tories to secure an overall majority they need to have a vote margin of perhaps 10% while Tony Blair’s party can still be returned with a majorityof MPs even if he’s in second place and secures barely a third of the national vote.

    A completely outrageous outcome on May 5th could dominate the post-election political environment. In the meantime the new market gives punters the opportunity to bet on it.

The current popular vote spreads are LAB 35-38%: CON 33.5-35.5%: LD 22.5-24.5%

  • Will the pollsters overstate Labour margins in the same way they have done for the past three elections?
  • Will the Lib Dem share follow the normal pattern and improve sharply by polling day?
  • Could Michael Howard end up as vote winner but still be far behind on seats?
  • This could come down to what opinion poll you believe and how much you are convinced by their methodologies. We think the non-phone pollsters are probably calling this one better and we think that all the three possibilities might happen.

    Mike Smithson

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