Tony Blair’s NOP lead doubles in a week A new NOP poll in the Independent with changes from the same pollster last week has LAB 38 (+2): CON 32(-1): LD 21(nc) and if repeated on a uniform basis nationally on May 5 would give Labour 391 seats, the Conservatives 171 and the Lib Dems 55. What’s encouraging for Labour is that 67 per cent of their supporters said they were “certain to vote” – up three points on last week….
Lib Dem spread decline on the turn With Charles and Sarah’s baby due at any time a punter has made the biggest spread bet of the campagn so far “buying” the Lib Dems at the 67 seat level at £3,000 a seat. So if the party only secured the 46 seats that it got in 1997 the punter would be down £63,000. On the other hand a Lib Dem total of more than the 80 that some party optimists have…
REVISED POLITICALBETTING “BALANCE OF MONEY†prediction: Labour majority 54 One of the four spread bookmakers that are included in the daily calculation has marked Labour up sharply this morning following the latest batch of opinion polls – but this has not been followed by the others. The result is that there is no change although the average mid-point of the Labour spreads is now 350.06 seats. In order to make the prediction as accurate as possible we take the current…
REVISED Labour lead up with ICM but down with YouGov With the election campaign getting down to serious business after the three days lost in the first week following the death of the Pope and the Royal Wedding two new polls conducted over the weekend have Labour and the Tories going in different directions. An ICM poll in the Mirror has with comparisons on the survey in the Sunday Telegraph yesterday LAB 38 (nc): CON 33(-1): LD23 (+2). This will…
Can ministers “draw a line” under the Birmingham voting fraud case? Could another Andrew Gilligan Today programme piece, broadcast almost exactly two years before the famous “dodgy dossier” interview, come to haunt ministers in the run up to May 5th. For it was the controversial reporter who did the first serious expose of the then new more relaxed postal voting arrangements only days before the last General Election. Then Gilligan filed a major report on the “Today” programme on how…
POLITICALBETTING “BALANCE OF MONEY†prediction: Labour majority 54 In order to make the Balance of Money Predictor even more representative we are, from today adding the spread prices from two other bookmakers into the equation. So as well as Spreadfair, IG Index we will now include Sporting Index and Tradesports. This morning’s polls have, as we predicted, caused the Labour spreads to move up a notch and the average mid-point of the four markets that are now included is 349.63…
Tory prices marked down on betting markets Three new opinion polls this morning should help stop some of the jitters in the Labour camp and have caused the move to the Tories on the spread-betting markets to falter. They are with changes on the last published survey by the same pollster:- MORI in the Observer CON 33 (-6): LAB 40 (+6): LD 19 (-2). ICM in the Sunday Telegraph CON 34 (nc): LAB 38 (+1): LDEM 20 (-1) YouGov for…
The outcome no one wants to talk about The great drive of the Labour spin machine, fully supported for their own reasons by the Conservative spin machine, is that there are only two options in this election – a Labour government led by Tony Blair or a Conservative government led by Michael Howard. It is in neither of their interests to talk of the other possibility – that of no party winning an overall majority. Surprisingly the Lib Dems are…