Is 5/1 on a hung parliament a good value bet?

Is 5/1 on a hung parliament a good value bet?

    The outcome no one wants to talk about

The great drive of the Labour spin machine, fully supported for their own reasons by the Conservative spin machine, is that there are only two options in this election – a Labour government led by Tony Blair or a Conservative government led by Michael Howard. It is in neither of their interests to talk of the other possibility – that of no party winning an overall majority.

Surprisingly the Lib Dems are also willing to go along with this conspiracy of silence because they don’t want Charles Kennedy and every other Lib Dem spokesman being faced all the time with the question that has dominated previous General Elections – which side would they support in such an eventuality?

    The Labour push to make doubters believe that the Michael Howard is the only alternative to them winning a majority is total nonsense.

If by any chance Labour drops below the magic 323 mark to, say, 320, the Conservatives will be at least 80 seats behind and a very long way off forming a government.

It is the chances of getting into this territory that we think offers some good value betting opportunities. While we believe that Tony Blair is on course for another majority the chances of that not happening are much smaller than the betting exchange 5/1 or the conventional bookie price of 4/1 that you can currently get on a hung parliament.

If by any chance the votes divide according to the recent MORI poll, which had the Conservatives 5% ahead, then we are in this territory. Even smaller Conservative margins could produce this outcome.

Last night’s ICM poll, which has led to so much debate on the site, was commissioned by a new pressure group, Strategicvoter, to campaign for this objective. Amazingly it only cost them £440 to commission the survey. What a new political world we are in.

Mike Smithson

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