It’s Tony Blair with a 90 seat majority After more than a month of the “Balance of Money” predictions the eve of poll markets show that punters are expecting Tony Blair to be returned tomorrow with a majority of 90 seats. These represent the collective view of gamblers who have been backing up their judgements with hard cash. The eve of poll figures are:- Predicted Labour majority 90 seats (+8) Predicted vote shares LAB 37.3 (+0.3) : CON 32.3 (-0.9):…
A hung parliament & one punter loses £168,000 An IG punter will be looking at Thursday night’s counts with even greater interest after making what is the biggest reported wager of the campaign so far. He has bought Labour on the overall majority spread market at £2000 a seat above 84 seats. This means that if Labour fail to secure a Commons majority the punter will lose a staggering £168,000 rising at the rate of £4,000 a seat for every…
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Will losses be more than Tony Blair’s feared one in ten? As Tony Blair seeks to focus wavering Labour supporters on the implications of “one in ten†supporters from last time not going with the party on Thursday it’s worth looking again at some the detail from recent polls. We have raised this before but according to the last ICM poll for which there is full data the equivalent of 2 out of every 11 people told the interviewer that…
Has Tony Blair repeated the 1997 and 2001 magic? Tony Blair is heading for another landslide according to the Martin Baxter formula which takes a weighted average of the latest polls and then applies the changes on a uniform swing basis to each individual seat. The Baxter “poll of polls†has LAB 38.8: CON 31.1: LD 22.2 which in terms of projected seats in the next House of Commons comes out at CON 166: LAB 395: LD 57 His figures…
Predicted Labour majority 80 seats (+2) Predicted vote shares LAB 37 ( -0.3) : CON 33.2 (-0.4): LD 22.2 (+0.2) Labour’s projected majority in our balance of money prediction based on the collective decisions of spread-betting gamblers sees the party move up two seats. This is caused almost entirely by the sad death of the Liberal Democrat candidate in Staffordshire which means that there will be no election in this Tory stronghold on Thursday. The vote share projection show moves…
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This is our General Election competition for which the winner will receive from BinaryBet.com the sum of £1000 in an account that will be opened. Please post entries in the comments section below BEFORE 1159 PM on Tuesday evening. Please do not use this comments section for anything other than entries – a separate thread for comment on the competition will be opened. Any comments left in the entry thread will be deleted. Please ensure that when you file your…