Labour maintains its 3% YouGov lead as activists wait to watch the postal votes being opened A YouGov poll in Monday’s Telegraph has CON 33 (nc) 36(nc): LD 24 (+1). An ICM poll might be published as well overnight and we will update this as soon as it is available. Overall the figures are very stable with the CON-LAB split staying about the same and the Lib Dems showing an improvement. It has been a quiet day on the betting…
A number of people have been in contact asking how they can help towards the cost of running the site. In response I have now set up a PayPal account. All you do if you wish to make a contribution is to drop me an email at Mikes245@yahoo.com stating the amount. You then receive an email from PayPal where you can make a payment using the secure online facilities. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Our bandwidth usage looks set…
The numbers still looks good for Tony The final list of Sunday paper polls is:- MORI: LAB 36 (nc): CON 33(-1): LD 22 (-1) Communicate Research LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-4): LD 23 (+5) YouGov: LAB 36 (nc) : CON 33 (+1): LD 23 (-1) ICM LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-2): LD 22 (+2) British Polling Index: LAB 37 (+1): CON 33 (nc): LD 21 (-1) This has prompted almost no change in the Commons seats spreadbetting markets….
The Sunday Times switches to the Tories and the IoS says “vote Lib Dem” The final weekend of the campaign and the Sunday papers make their endorsements with no real surprises from the tabloids. The People, stablemate of the Mirror, is going for Labour and the Sunday Express the Tories. The Murdoch-owned News of the World has followed the Sun and has come out for Blair. It says ..if Labour forms the next Government we put them on notice this…
Predicted Labour majority 78 seat (nc) Predicted vote shares LAB 37.3 ( -0.3) : CON 33.6 (+0.2): LD 22 (+0.1) The spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland and the latter are roughly 0.97 of the former. So a Labour spread of 37-37.5% equates roughly to 38.1%-38.6% when comparing with an opinion poll. The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers…
First up tonight is Communicate Research in the Indpendent on Sunday which has LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-4): LD 23 (+5). Next Thursday will be the first time CR has been tested against real results. It remains to be seen whether it can perform better than the pollster the Indy on Sunday used four years ago, Rasmussen, which with its automated phone methodology was the only firm to get the Tories right and got the Labour margin within 2%….
Betting on votes – not seats With Labour’s victory being almost as big a certainty as Sunderland South being the first seat to declare there’s increasing interest in the party vote share markets where you do not have to factor in the complicated and varied considerations about how the seats will divide. And it is here that you can bet for or against the findings of specific opinion pollsters. If you think that YouGov are predicting this one best then…
Could the small circulation Indy have an impact? With the Independent looking set to endorse the Lib Dems on Thursday today’s splash lead seeks to undermine Labour’s core strategy for dealing with the Lib Dem threat. The above is the front page that’s in the shops this morning and might well have an influence beyond the few hundred thousand who buy the paper each day. The story is very clear and could make Labour’s task in the final few days…