Labour spread price starts to slip For the first time since Tony Blair announced the election a month ago the Labour price on the spread markets has started to slip. The mid-afternoon fix from IG saw a two seat drop which means a four seat reduction in the projected majority. This is not a major drop but it is significant and is the product of Labour backers not being as confident as they were this morning. There’s also been more…
It doesn’t look as though there’ll be removal vans here tomorrow afternoon With trading on the spread-betting markets due to continue right through the night until a final result is known the latest Balance of Money prediction shows that the markets think that Labour will be returned with a majority of 92 seats. But the interesting question could be the size of Labour’s share of the popular vote because if it is at the final poll levels then Tony Blair…
The pollsters converge in their final surveys The final polls for Election 2005 are just coming in and there are one or two surprises:- ICM in the Guardian has LAB 38: CON 32: LD 22 YouGov in the Telegraph has LAB 37: CON 32: LD 24 Populus in the Times has LAB 38: CON 32: LD 21 NOP in the Independent has LAB 36: CON 33: LD 23 These follow an internet survey from Harris this morning that has returned…
We cannot wish everybody who visits the site success with their betting or politics tomorrow because logic dictates that some people are going to be disappointed. But thanks to everybody for all that has been done in the past months and weeks to create an extraordinary online community. We hope that it has made the election that much more enjoyable and maybe, for some, a profitable experience. The discussion forums have certainly extended our range of knowledge and understanding and…
Do they loath Blair enough to risk an outside chance of Howard For more than six months we have been saying that what will determine this election will be how the 58-60% aggregate vote share of Labour and the Lib Dems actually splits. A consistent factor in almost all the polls since last autumn has been the way this aggregate has remained pretty solid. When Labour have been up the Lib Dems have been down and vice versa. If there…
UK Elect predicts Labour majority of 100+ The UK Elect prediction which got it to within just two seats in 2001 has now produced its final forecast. The figures are LAB 374: CON 172: LD 69. This is based on an assumption that the final vote shares will be LAB 37: CON 32.5: LD 24. Meanwhile the huge market move has been towards Labour as gamblers rather than political anoraks focus on what will happen tomorrow night. We predicted this…
Which prices will look like this tomorrow night? The above was a live chart from Betfair from the night of November 2/3 2004 and shows the dramatic change in the fortunes of John Kerry as news came through first of good exit polls and then the reality of what had actually happened. For there’s is probably no better way of looking at this election than following the betting and our suggestion would be the Betfair Labour seats market. For unlike…