It doesn’t look as though there’ll be removal vans here tomorrow afternoon
With trading on the spread-betting markets due to continue right through the night until a final result is known the latest Balance of Money prediction shows that the markets think that Labour will be returned with a majority of 92 seats.
But the interesting question could be the size of Labour’s share of the popular vote because if it is at the final poll levels then Tony Blair will be heading a majority governmernt with the lowest ever percentage support which could lead to future challenges about its legitimacy.
If poor turnout leads to a drop of a couple of points the overall UK share for Labour could be under 34% – or barely a third.
We have noted before that the polls do not include Northern Ireland figures so the shares that are shown are about 1-1.3% higher than an overall share would look.
A great bet today is selling Labour on the party vote share markets. The 37% sell spread that you can currently get is, in UK terms, LOWER than ony of this morning’s poll ratings and equates to 38.1% without Northern Ireland.