Populus shows Labour lead of 8 points The November Populus survey in the Times this morning gives Labour an 8 point lead over the Tories and is in sharp contrast with the BPIX poll at the weekend which had the two main parties within two points. The shares were with changes on last month: CON 32 (+2): LAB 40 (nc): LD 19 (-2). And on Tony Blair himself Labour voters disagreed by 54 to 41 with the statement that “the…
Punters think they’ll be leaving 42 weeks earlier After a week which has seen the Blunkett resignation; the Government’s majority being reduced to one on the Terror Bill, and an opinion poll showing the Tories only two points behind there’s been big movement on the betting markets. Punters having been moving out of Labour as the next General Election winners and the prices on the “When will Blair go” indicate a much earlier departure than gamblers were ready to risk…
The Lib Dems do 2 points better if Davis wins The Tories would only perform marginally better against Gordon Brown under David Cameron than David Davis according to an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph this morning. If it was Brown versus Davis the split would be: Lab 41: CON 33: LD 18 If it was Brown versus Cameron the split would be: Lab 41: CON 34: LD 16 To the question of which contender would encourage “people like you”…
Updated 0940 Remember Nixon-Kennedy from 1960 As I predicted on Tuesday David Davis, did much better than expectations and this is being seen as a big boost to his campaign. But how much better, will it help him and are there still betting possibilities? According to today’s YouGov poll in the Telegraph Tory members who had watched the programme said Davis won by 45-18. Members are backing Cameron for leader by 68-32. This is down from 77-23 ten days ago….
Only the “don’t knows” will switch today The BBC devoted the whole of last night’s Question Time to three Davids: Conservative leadership contenders Davis and Cameron, and moderator Dimbleby. If you didn’t catch the broadcast, you can watch it by following the video link here. The opinion of most of our contributors was that neither Davis nor Cameron made a fatal mistake or scored an overwhelming hit: and despite Davis’s poor performance on the platform at the Tories’ October conference…
The story may not be over Before David Blunkett‘s resignation from the Cabinet yesterday, Liberal Democrat spokesman David Laws commented that Blunkett had “used up eight of his nine lives”. Number nine has gone now, in what must surely end any future hopes of high office. But what does it mean for the other great survivor of politics, Tony Blair? Reinstating Blunkett in the Cabinet immediately after the General Election in May showed great faith in his character. That’s now…
It has just been announced that David Blunkett has resigned as Work and Pensions Secretary after a meeting with Tony Blair this morning. This is the second time in eleven months that he has had to step down. 11.50 am UPDATE It’s now 8/1 that he’ll be back in the Cabinet by December 2006 William Hill, who had been offering 7/4 against David Blunkett resigning, are now offering odds of 8/1 that he will be back in the Cabinet by…
What do we think of this new betting market? If a British Prime Minister had gone though the problems that George Bush has had in recent weeks then all the speculation would be over whether he or she could survive. With the continuing toll in Iraq, the handling of the New Orleans disaster, the failure to get his Supreme Court nominee through and now the Libby indictment it is no wonder that Bush’s personal ratings have dropped to an all…