Will Cameron keep the Blair wheels turning?

Will Cameron keep the Blair wheels turning?

Is supporting the Government the right opposition strategy? With yesterday’s 2-1 lead in the YouGov poll of Tory members and this morning’s endorsements from William Hague and Liam Fox we now regard David Cameron’s victory in the Tory leadership race as a forgone conclusion. Given that a significant proportion of the members have already voted only tragic events, surely, can stop him from doing it. Those punters, like me, who ignored the Times’s coverage of Wednesday’s Populus poll have done…

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Essential Server Maintenance

Essential Server Maintenance

Well, 12 months after Politicalbetting got its own server we are hitting technical constraints again (mostly due to the frequency of Andrea’s posting). This weekend I will be updating both the hardware and the software to try and (a) increase reliability, and (b) introduce some new features. Hopefully this won’t be too disruptive, with maybe one or two hours of downtime in total. I’ll try and keep the bulk of this to “off peak” hours. Thanks for your patience, Robert

With the Tory race almost settled what about Labour?

With the Tory race almost settled what about Labour?

The Chancellor’s price tightens as punters sense an earlier promotion? With today’s YouGov poll of Tory members showing a comfortable 2 to 1 one margin in favour of Cameron the only betting interest left is on the scale of the victory. Even the Daily Mail has now come out for the 39 year old. Labour, meanwhile, looks a lot more interesting. On the betting market on who will be the next leader sentiment has moved sharply to the Chancellor since…

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How punters rated Davis’s Paxman ordeal

How punters rated Davis’s Paxman ordeal

The challenger stumbles a bit after being called a “shit” Each new event in the seemingly never-ending saga that is the Tory leadership contest is having a big impact on the betting – as shown in the above chart on the implied probability of Davis winning based on best betting prices. Last night David Davis appeared on BBC 2’s Newsnight to be interviewed by the legendary Jeremy Paxman – still seen as the most formidable inquisitor on UK television. And…

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The money goes on an early Blair departure

The money goes on an early Blair departure

Probability of him being there after December 2007 now rated at 24% For all our focus on the Tories in recent weeks the big question in UK politics is still the timing of Tony Blair’s departure from Number 10. Our chart illustates how punters are rating Blair’s chances of still being in the job after December 2007. This is based on best betting prices and underlines how damaging yesterday is being seen. After the first ever Commons defeat the speculation…

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REVEALED: Davis poll boost based on support of just 61 people

REVEALED: Davis poll boost based on support of just 61 people

Full details of the poll that shook the markets Populus Polls have now published on their website the full data set of today survey in the Times which has sent punters running to David Davis and changed the way in which many are viewing the contest. The headline was that Tory supporters were supporting Davis over Cameron by 50%-37% – a huge turnround from other recent polls in this contest. When news of the poll first emerged late last night…

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Blair odds-on to get the 90-day detention measure through

Blair odds-on to get the 90-day detention measure through

Is it worth betting on Blair being defeated? With the crucial vote taking place later today on the Terror bill William Hill are offering odds of 1/2 that Tony Blair’s 90 day detention period for terrorist suspects will become law. The bookmaker is also offering 6/4 that the measure will not make it on to the statute book at this attempt. This is quite a tough one to call because even if it does go the Government’s way today the…

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Punters pile on Davis after Populus poll shock

Punters pile on Davis after Populus poll shock

The Times’ pollster puts Davis ahead amongst Tory voters The Times today publishes more findings from its November Populus Poll showing that of those in the survey who said they were Tories – 50% wanted Davis as leader against 37% supporting Cameron. This is a huge turnround and sparked off a great amount of activity on the betting markets. Last night the Betfair exchange had Cameron at 0.11/1 with Davis at more than 7/1. This morning Davis is down to…

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