PB.C chart: Labour’s chances of being top party at next election

PB.C chart: Labour’s chances of being top party at next election

Punters give Labour a 57% chance of winning most seats In spite of the emergence of David Cameron, the higher media profile over the leadership election and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat punters still make Labour a very strong favourite to come out top at the next General Election. Our latest chart based on best betting prices shows how punters are viewing the party’s election chances whenever it is held. The implied probability of a Labour victory is, like…

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Could Labour and the Lib Dems skip a generation as well?

Could Labour and the Lib Dems skip a generation as well?

.. Might David Milband and Ed Davey benefit from the “Cameron effect”? One side effect of the emergence of David Cameron for the Tory leadership has been a change on the betting markets for the Labour leadership. The 54 year old Gordon Brown remains, of course, the red-hot odds on favourite but in recent weeks there’s been money going on the 40 year old Minister of State for Communities and Local Government, David Miliband who joined the Cabinet in May….

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Cameron gets a good press after the Paxman grilling

Cameron gets a good press after the Paxman grilling

Betting price set to tighten even further The heavy betting in recent days on David Cameron winning the Tory leadership should continue this morning after getting a pretty good press following his combative interview with Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight. In the Times, under the headline “Paxman’s cocktail of rudeness fails to shake Cameron” Ann Treneman amusingly describes the opening when Cameron was asked if he knew what a “Pink Pussy was”. She goes on “…Dave relaxed (always a mistake). “Oh,…

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Can Paxman put a smile back on Davis’s face?

Can Paxman put a smile back on Davis’s face?

Will Cameron survive the “ordeal by Newsnight”? Six months and ten days after the marathon Tory leadership started the the look on Davis’s face says it all. After being front-runner for so long and then seeing the events in Blackpool turn the contest on its head is there anything he can hope for from the campaign’s final set piece tonight when David Cameron faces Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight? For if there is going to be a last minute upset then…

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“Blair is about to go” rumour sets off betting surge

“Blair is about to go” rumour sets off betting surge

What are we to make of the “Blair going” market moves? The implied probability, based on best betting prices, of Tony Blair leaving by the end of this year – within six weeks – has started rising again following the big surge last week after the 90-day detention defeat. The chart maps how punters have being viewing Blair’s possible imminent departure Meanwhile the bookmakers, William Hill, have reported taking string of bets from punters who believe an announcement that Tony…

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Is this the man who can beat Hilary?

Is this the man who can beat Hilary?

Mark Warner 8/1 for the Democrat nomination and 40/1 to be President Every time we’ve discussed the next US White House race in recent months one of PB.C’s most long-standing contributors, Ben, has advised that a key person to watch for the Democrat nomination is the outgoing Governor of Virginian and former cellphone tycoon, Mark Warner. This always seemed odd because in the regular US polls Warner was not even listed as one of the potential challengers – or was…

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Why not lift the ban on political TV advertising?

Why not lift the ban on political TV advertising?

How can more people be persuaded to vote? Tomorrow I’ve been invited to take part in a “power lunch” at the Adam Smith Institute at which at which pollsters, journalists and others with a keen interest in the election process will discuss with Sam Younger, Chairman of the Electoral Commission, ways of boosting voter turnout in UK elections. And in thinking about the issue it struck me that the decline in turn-out is closely correlated to the emergence of digital…

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Did DD miss his Question Time opportunity?

Did DD miss his Question Time opportunity?

Team source says Davis failed to use his “killer sound-bites”? The general view, backed up by the opinion polls, was that David Davis was the clear winner of the Question Time debate between the two contenders the week before last – and there’s little doubt that his performance put new life into his campaign. But word has reached PB.C that those advising David Davis were very disappointed by what their man did in the debate with David Cameron and that…

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