Punters think they’ll be leaving 42 weeks earlier
After a week which has seen the Blunkett resignation; the Government’s majority being reduced to one on the Terror Bill, and an opinion poll showing the Tories only two points behind there’s been big movement on the betting markets.
Punters having been moving out of Labour as the next General Election winners and the prices on the “When will Blair go” indicate a much earlier departure than gamblers were ready to risk money on barely a week ago.These are the main changes:-
The poll, by British Polling Index had with changes on October – CON 35 (+2): LAB 37 (-4): LD 20 (+2).
So BPIX has the Tories through the 33% ceiling while the Lib Dems are holding onto their General Election share. It will be interesting to see if the November Populus survey, expected to be published in the Times tomorrow, shows similar trends.
At the General Election on May 5th the pollster had the Tories correct at 33% but were 0.8% over with Labour and 1.7% under with the Lib Dems. In terms of accuracy they came in second place ahead of bigger names like ICM, YouGov and Populus.
In the Tory leadership betting there’s been a sharp move back to David Cameron overnight. On the Betfair exchange he was trading at 1.14-1.15 at 9pm last night. The current price is 1.1. So a Â£100 winning bet place yesterday would produce a Â£14/15 profit. This morning the best you can get would give Â£10.