It’s 10/1 that Bush will not serve a full 2nd term

It’s 10/1 that Bush will not serve a full 2nd term

    What do we think of this new betting market?

If a British Prime Minister had gone though the problems that George Bush has had in recent weeks then all the speculation would be over whether he or she could survive. With the continuing toll in Iraq, the handling of the New Orleans disaster, the failure to get his Supreme Court nominee through and now the Libby indictment it is no wonder that Bush’s personal ratings have dropped to an all time low.

In a piece in the promising new web magazine, First Post, Edward Luttwak, sets out the Bush dilemma. “….Having won two presidential elections and fought two unending wars, President Bush has run out of energy. Instead of the bouncing enthusiasm of happier days, his subdued manner indicates a loss of interest in the presidency itself, a desire to go home and rest. If he were a British prime minister, the House of Commons would sense his exhaustion inducing one his colleagues to claim the office, allowing him to retreat to the back benches, until the inevitable elevation to the House of Lords..But an American president who has had enough of power and its travails has no honourable exit from the White House and is condemned to serve out the balance of his four years.”

So what about the bet bet from PaddyPower that Bush won’t make it until January 20th 2009 – the day he’s due to hand over power to the winner of the 2008 White Race Race?

The last President to resign in office was Richard Nixon in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal and the move to impeach him. As yet there’s no question here of an impeachment move and even if there was Bill Clinton showed in 1997-98 that this is not necssarily fatal.

So what about this bet? The 10/1 sounds nice but is it completely out of the question?

Thursday and Friday on PB.C. I am in Amsterdam on business for the rest of the week and Philip Grant, (Book Value) will be holding the fort. I’ll miss the Question Time debate between Cameron and Davis.

Mike Smithson

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