Who are the punters betting against Gordon?

Who are the punters betting against Gordon?

Why isn’t the Chancellor’s price tightening? After this morning’s Populus Poll showing that neither John Reid or Alan Johnson would do better against Cameron than Gordon Brown I finally came to the view that it would take very unusual circumstances indeed for the Chancellor not to succeed Tony Blair. My line until now was that what could derail Brown’s chances would be hard polling evidence that another contender would perform better. That could still happen of course but it is…

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Labour move to within 1% with Populus

Labour move to within 1% with Populus

But Labour’s deficit is 8% with Brown/Cameron named as leaders The first fully post-conference season poll to be carried out, that for Populus in the Times this morning, has Labour moving to within just one point of the Tories. The shares with changes on the last Populus poll a month ago are: CON 36% (nc): LAB 35% (+3): LD 18% (-2). In the same October survey in 2005 which took place after the Tory conference in Blackpool had been dominating…

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How an ICM 3% Labour lead was recorded as 15%

How an ICM 3% Labour lead was recorded as 15%

The dangers of making historical polling comparisons Like many polling nerds whenever I’ve wanted to check some past polling information I’ve gone to Mori’s “all firms” historical data tables. They are easily accessible and apparently comprehensive – except that Mori does not appear to recognise YouGov. But there’s a huge danger of using this source which I think is affecting current perceptions of Labour’s poll leads before they got into Government – many of the numbers in the Mori table…

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Could the next President be a woman?

Could the next President be a woman?

Betfair opens new White House 2008 market In just over a year’s time the potential candidates to be the next President will have to reveal their hands. For in order to get on the ballot for the first of the primaries, New Hampshire, formal nomination papers will have to be handed in during November and there’ll be fierce contest in both parties. And for the first time ever in the USA’s 230 year old history prominent women are being talked…

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Anthony Wells lauches new Election Guide

Anthony Wells lauches new Election Guide

See for yourself the efffects of the boundary changes Anthony Wells, the person behind UK Polling Report, has this afternoon launched the latest version of his Election Guide – available online here. It’s a mine of information that we are sure to be looking at time and time again in the run up to the next General Election. Anthony (pictured above at the PBC party earlier in the year talking to a shy Guido hiding behind his beer glass) has…

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ICM gives the Tories a 6% lead

ICM gives the Tories a 6% lead

..and Brown trails 11% on “who would be best PM” In the first public poll after the conference season ICM in the Sunday Telegraph is reporting a big increase in the Tory lead and some poor figures for the Chancellor over “who would make the best Prime Minister”. The shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll a week ago are CON 38% (+2): LAB 32% (-3): LD 20%(+1). This is the second biggest lead that the pollster has had…

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Betfair opens US mid-terms markets

Betfair opens US mid-terms markets

Will the Republicans be able to hang on? With just three and a half weeks to go the betting exchange, Betfair, has now opened a range of markets on what will surely be the most important elections in the world during 2006 – the mid terms. Currently, the Republicans run both houses of Congress, but the outcome in November 2006 seems in doubt given the unpopularity both of President Bush and Congress. If the Democrats win one or both houses,…

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Coral’s ease Labour’s General Election price to 6/4

Coral’s ease Labour’s General Election price to 6/4

Will the market moves be reflected in post conference polls? The latest best price on Labour winning most seats at the next General Election has now eased to 6/4. The online bookmaker offering the odds, Corals, has also tightened the Tories to 1/2. So a winning £100 bet on Labour would produce a £150 profit while a Tory backer making a similar sized bet could only look forward to winnings of just £50. For the potential wininngs on the Tories…

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