How the Parties Are Performing? None of the three main parties can take that much comfort from their performance in local by-elections since the start of July. In all contests during that period, the Conservatives have made a net loss of 1 seat, Labour are unchanged, the Liberal Democrats have made a net gain of 6, Scottish and Welsh nationalists have made a net gain of 2, and Others have made a net loss of 7. There have been a…
In July we launched a competition on what Cameron would do in his speech to follow “hug a hoodie”. We asked what’s going to be next? Clearly it had to be something that was so distant from what you would expect to hear from a Tory leader that it will, at first, appear totally shocking. We’ve had three or four entrants making claims but I’ve decided to award the prize to David Herdson. His entry posted on July 23rrd was:-…
Why can’t we bet on Labour’s other battle? The overnight headlines following Jack Straw’s comments about Muslim women wearing the veil has fueled further speculation about the Deputy Leadership chances of the former Foreign Secretary and leader of the House, Jack Straw. Were his comments, which he must have realised would attract the big headlines, part of his plan to raise his profile ahead of next year’s election to choose John Prescott’s succession? He’s quoted as saying that before going…
Does this mean that the change-over is being put back until July? The above illustrations were taken from the Labour party website which even this afternoon was still promoting the 2007 Spring Party Conference to prospective delegates and corporate sponsors. This is the second biggest event in the party’s annual calender and preparations seem to have been well advanced. The plan, potential corporate sponsors were being told, was “to incorporate Local Government, women and youth conferences, providing you the opportunity…
With maybe three years to go the Commons majority markets open So we’ve ended conference season and we’ve now got a clearer idea about how all three main parties will tackle the coming months. But what’s this all going to mean in General Election terms? Do we have any greater feeling about the outcome? The challenge is that nobody has any real idea how a Brown-led Labour is going to go down with the voters. Will his changed status as…
It was good on the bulletins but did it fall flat in the hall? Having now watched all the TV bulletins it’s clear that like almost all Cameron’s set-pieces he gets his sound bites right. The speech has come over much better on the TV bulletins than it actually was. From what could be gathered from the TV bulletins you did not get the feeling of overwhelming support amongst the activists for their new leader and you could see that…
Are betting odds being “managed” to influence the race Over the past two to three days there have been some very odd happenings on the £500,000 Labour leadership betting market on the Betfair – the leading betting exchange that usually sets the scene for other bookmakers. For as the chart shows the Brown price has eased considerably from 0.51/1 on Sunday to 0.58/1 where it has remained almost stuck. Now what makes this move remarkable from a betting market perspective…
How long a standing ovation will the new leader receive? Sir Menzies Campbell’s lasted five minutes, Tony Blair’s seven minutes, now spread betting firm IG Index has opened a market on how long a standing ovation David Cameron will receive after his closing speech tomorrow. The spread is between five-and-a-half and six minutes. By comparison last year when he was a leadership contender the standing ovation went on for three minutes. Then, of course, there weren’t the “floor managers assisting…